investment ideas: 2 themes Amnish Aggarwal is betting on for next few years

“Within the close to time period, all of the banks are going to have a troublesome time within the treasury portfolio as a result of the rates of interest have been rising,” says Amnish Aggarwal, Head of Analysis, Prabhudas Lilladher.


Is there benefit in shopping for PSU banks, at the least the large PSU banks? is a no brainer however what a few or BoB?
Within the close to time period, all of the banks are going to have a troublesome time within the treasury portfolio as a result of the rates of interest have been rising however for those who take a look at the previous historical past additionally, if the rates of interest peak out, then the earnings will look good. I believe it could actually present a little bit little bit of upside right here or there as a result of a few of these they haven’t been structural performs up to now.

One can play for buying and selling for a pattern structurally, some has to kick in for an investor to begin them favourably. Sure, a few of these have modified, the mergers have occurred, they’ve improved their programs, processes and many others, however the progress charges of many of those PSU banks relative to the frontline non-public banks stay anaemic. At greatest, they may stay extra like buying and selling bets for 10-15% returnsand not like structural bets.

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What’s the outlook throughout the total actual property basket? Are you seeing some potential there?
We have now been fairly optimistic on the whole capital items theme and actual property for fairly a while due to the best way the Indian corporates have deleveraged up to now few years and the rise of a few of the themes like PLIs and likewise their exports are rising. An all spherical enhance in capex is going on throughout corporates and new segments are rising.

For the eight to 10 years after the 2008-09 Lehman disaster, the capital items or engineering shares have been down within the dumps however they’ve now began rising out of the gloom and when any sector wakes up after so lengthy being in slumber, it’s extra prone to be a 3-5-year run up. It has began possibly a yr again however in some circumstances, the PE multiples may look fancy however has a protracted highway forward within the coming few years, when it comes to progress and when it comes to market returns additionally.
Actual property like capital items was down within the dumps however the sector has began doing nicely. Actual property gamers are extra into promoting flats or homes within the greater cities or high 15-20 cities of India. The gross sales momentum is powerful. The inflation doesn’t have any affect on that as of now and I imagine that like capital items, actual property can also be a theme which can play out over the following few years though not like capital items, right here the money flows usually are not that sturdy as of now. One ought to take a look at each the themes for the following few years.