Russia-Ukraine crisis highlights Africa’s need to diversify its wheat sources

The struggle between Russia and Ukraine has highlighted simply how a lot of the world’s wheat provide depends on these two international locations. For example, a just lately launched UN report reveals a pattern of 25 African international locations that depend on wheat imports from Russia or Ukraine. Of this group, 21 import most of their wheat from Russia.

Between 2018 and 2020, Africa imported $3.7 billion in wheat (32 per cent of the continent’s complete wheat imports) from Russia and one other $1.4 billion from Ukraine (12 per cent of the continent’s wheat imports).

It’s essential that African international locations diversify their wheat sources for 2 key causes.

First, wheat kinds an necessary element of diets. Not having sufficient brings the specter of starvation and political instability.

Second, Africa’s dependency on Russian wheat imports will affect key political and navy choices. Given some African international locations’ dependence on Russian wheat, it might’ve influenced how they voted on the 2 United Nations Common Meeting resolutions regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In each cases, a shocking variety of international locations both supported Russia or remained impartial. One purpose for this may very well be as a result of they wouldn’t wish to upset relations with an excellent provider.

Over the centuries, the sourcing of wheat has factored into the political and strategic choices and safety of many international locations.

Take into account the traditional Greek city-state of Athens: within the fifth century BC, Athens needed to feed an ever-growing inhabitants. Officers turned in the direction of components of Egypt, Sicily, Syria and the Black Sea area to fill Athenian granaries – a sample of enlargement and commerce which has usually been repeated in world historical past.

Nazi Germany addressed meals shortages by way of its Starvation Plan — a coverage for the seizure of meals from the Soviet Union to feed German troopers and civilians.

Throughout the Chilly Battle, the US used its benefit as a significant wheat-producing nation to affect determination makers and cement assist amongst states. Wheat exports accompanied American navy deployments all over the world.

In 2022, the geopolitics of wheat has as soon as once more come below the highlight with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As specialists on international relations – with a concentrate on African political economic system and commerce and agriculture in Africa – we wished to spotlight the dependency of many African international locations on wheat provides from these two warring nations, and we wished to emphasize the necessity for the area to diversify its wheat sources.

International wheat provide

Russia and Ukraine are among the many world’s high 10 wheat producers (that are principally primarily based within the International North) and among the many 5 largest wheat exporters. Collectively, the 2 signify 27 per cent of the worldwide commerce in wheat.

Even earlier than the Russian invasion of Ukraine, international meals costs had been already rising. This was principally because of sub-par harvests, elevated transport prices and provide chain disruptions attributable to COVID-19.

The Russia-Ukraine struggle has additional compounded international uncertainties making the agro-food market jittery, additional escalating international meals costs and the costs of agricultural supplies, equivalent to fertiliser.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, considerations over wheat provide disruptions, particularly from the Black Sea area, have considerably elevated wheat costs. Between January and February 2022, international wheat costs elevated by 2.1 per cent.

An increase in wheat costs can have important knock-on results given the significance of bread to day by day diets all over the world.

The African impression

Will increase to the value of foodstuffs presents a double risk: it will increase the degrees of meals insecurity and poverty.

Wheat is broadly consumed throughout the African continent. Between 2000 and 2009, in sub-Saharan Africa alone, wheat consumption elevated at a fee of 0.35kg/yr, outpacing maize and rice. It turned an necessary crop and staple as a consequence of speedy inhabitants progress, elevated urbanisation, and adjustments in meals preferences. Customers in Africa use wheat for straightforward and quick meals, equivalent to bread, biscuits, pasta, noodles and porridge.

Furthermore, some international locations in Africa — equivalent to Morocco, Egypt, and Sudan — are offering bread subsidies to poor communities to alleviate starvation and malnutrition.

Though wheat is consumed broadly throughout the African continent, crop yields are comparatively low in comparison with main producing wheat areas, particularly within the International North. Causes vary from excessive climate situations to water shortage, poor soil high quality and poor irrigation techniques.

In consequence, African nations depend on imports to fulfill the demand and wish for wheat. For example, throughout the 2020/2021 commerce yr, African imports of wheat reached 54.8 million metric tons, whereas the continental manufacturing of wheat amounted to 25.7 million metric tons.

Pressing classes

The state of affairs highlights the necessity for African international locations to diversify their wheat imports and put money into increasing home manufacturing capability.

For instance, Egypt — which depends on Russian and Ukrainian wheat imports because the world’s largest importer of the crop — will depend on its wheat reserves which is estimated to final till the top of 2022. The hope is that it is going to be in a position to safe different suppliers by then. If Egypt fails to safe different wheat imports, sharp spikes in the price of wheat might severely have an effect on the Egyptian authorities’s means to maintain bread costs at their present subsidised stage.

Egyptian historical past presents its present authorities with a warning of what to anticipate if bread costs proceed to extend. In 1977, an try by then-president Anwar Sadat to extend bread costs set off lethal riots which didn’t subside till the choice was rescinded. Coupled with the nation’s historic protests related to the Arab Spring, such warnings are laborious to dismiss.

Nationwide, regional and continental organisations have recognised the urgent want for Africa to extend its wheat manufacturing to keep away from these situations.

Within the wake of the Russia-Ukraine struggle, the African Improvement Financial institution is on a mission to boost $1 billion to help 40 million African farmers to make use of climate-resilient applied sciences and to extend their yields of heat-tolerant wheat varieties and different crops.

Harsh truths

When it got here to voting on the 2 UN Common Meeting resolutions demanding Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine, just a bit over half of the African votes was in favour of Ukraine, whereas others abstained or voted towards the resolutions. Most studies on Africa’s divided vote concentrate on navy and political alliances, in addition to political ideological leanings. The facility of meals -– and particularly wheat — has been largely neglected.

Other than attempting to determine the motivations for a way African international locations voted on the UN, the Russia-Ukraine disaster has, extra importantly, proven that a number of African international locations must diversify wheat imports and put money into turning into self-sufficient. This must be performed with some urgency to guard themselves towards international shocks – no matter their origin.

Mandira Bagwandeen, Senior Analysis Fellow, The Nelson Mandela College of Public Governance, College of Cape City and Noncedo Vutula, Senior analysis fellow on the Nelson Mandela College of Public Governance, College of Cape City

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