Will Iran recognize Taliban government in Afghanistan?

On his first official go to to Iran, the Taliban authorities’s performing Overseas Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi arrived in Tehran Jan. 9 for talks together with his counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Having held a preliminary assembly with Iranian officers in Kabul, the high-level Taliban delegation had already finalized the agenda.

In response to a tweet by the Taliban international ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi, the delegation’s go to targeted on “political, financial, transit and refugee points between Afghanistan and Iran.” Nonetheless, it was the officers’ negotiations with key Afghan resistance leaders in Iran that grew to become the primary headline of the go to.

Accompanied by senior delegates, Muttaqi met with Ahmed Massoud, who heads the Nationwide Resistance Entrance and is son of the late Afghan commander Ahmed Shah Massoud, and Ismail Khan, a former Afghan minister and provincial governor.

Confirming the talks in televised remarks, the Taliban international minister appeared hopeful, saying, “We assured all of them that they’ll come again to reside freely and safely.” But the state of affairs stays tense in Afghanistan, with two violent assaults going down in Nangarhar and Kabul because the talks had been underway. The threats to the Taliban authorities persist from each Islamic State operatives and former members of the Afghan navy.

Ostensibly, Tehran facilitated these talks to carry the 2 rival factions collectively, however the resistance spokesman Ahmadi insisted that the primary motive for Muttaqi’s go to was to “acquire official recognition from leaders in Iran.” Although it shares a 900-kilometer border with Afghanistan, Iran believes the brand new administration shouldn’t be inclusive and doesn’t characterize the ethnic minorities in Afghanistan.

Taking an identical stance a long time in the past, Tehran by no means formally acknowledged the Taliban, even throughout their earlier stint in energy from 1996 to 2001. A nationwide political reconciliation in Afghanistan would fulfill considered one of Tehran’s essential circumstances for recognizing the present regime.

Caroline Rose, a senior analyst on the Newlines Institute in Washington, advised Al-Monitor that Iran has been deepening its affect inside the “Talibanized Afghanistan” following the withdrawal of US troops final 12 months. “Not solely has Iran known as upon the US and companions to unfreeze Afghan belongings for humanitarian functions, however Iran’s Overseas Minister has hosted Afghanistan’s performing Overseas Minister in Tehran. Indicators level to an eventual choice to acknowledge a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.”

However, Iranian Overseas Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh burdened at a press convention earlier than Muttaqi’s arrival that, “Immediately, we’re mainly not on the level of recognizing [the Taliban].” 

“Iran is OK with a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan so long as sure circumstances are met,” Sina Azodi, a non-resident fellow on the Atlantic Council in Washington, advised Al-Monitor. First, he stated, Iran needs the Taliban to forestall the rise of terrorist teams, particularly ISIS Khurasan. Secondly, Tehran is worried with the transit of narcotics by way of its territory.

Lastly, Azodi added, “The safety and security of Shiites in Afghanistan can be a supply of grave concern to Iran. I imagine that so long as these pursuits are met, Iran can have no downside with Taliban in energy,” even when it doesn’t acknowledge the Taliban within the quick time period.

Nonetheless, by serving to the Taliban authorities at a time when it lacks public help, Tehran can preserve sustainable relations.

Kabul stays Tehran’s fifth largest export vacation spot, and bilateral commerce has been value $3 billion in recent times. As well as, Iran exports 110 megawatts of energy to Afghanistan, and its energy grid is linked to town of Herat. Earlier than the Taliban took over, Tehran had finalized long-term offers so as to add 500 to 600 megawatts capability with the Ghani administration. Proper now, the utmost export capability is round 175 megawatts.

Iran’s Chabahar port can play an necessary function in reviving landlocked Afghanistan’s financial system, and Tehran, New Delhi, and Kabul have a transit commerce settlement since 2017. Although this port is exempted from sanctions on Iran, perpetual instability in Afghanistan and the following uncertainty after the Taliban takeover have slowed it down.

After Muttaqi’s go to, Amir-Abdollahian spoke to Indian Overseas Minister S. Jaishankar on the cellphone and introduced “measures and cooperation” in transport Indian wheat and medication to Kabul. India operates a key terminal at Chabahar, and its port actions in Iran would additionally get a lift.

As India doesn’t have direct entry to Afghanistan, it has not been in a position to ship 50,000 metric tons of wheat it promised Kabul as humanitarian help in October. India had requested Pakistan to let the consignment go as a particular case, because it doesn’t permit two-way commerce between India and Afghanistan by way of its land routes.

This time, Pakistan determined to make an exception, however the logistics for transferring Indian wheat to Afghanistan are nonetheless not settled, so Amir-Abdollahian’s supply has been warmly welcomed by Indian media.

Additionally, Jaishankar tweeted that the Chabahar port got here underneath dialogue.

“India, after preliminary bravado, has made a rethink about its Afghan coverage,” Ashok Swain, professor of peace and battle analysis on the Uppsala College in Sweden, advised Al-Monitor. “The prospect of full isolation within the neighborhood, the geostrategic components and the worry of accelerating militancy in Kashmir pressured this rethink.”

Consequently, “With the assistance of Russia and Iran, India is making an attempt to determine a considerably working relationship with the Taliban. The Taliban additionally expects to make use of the India card to barter with Pakistan on a number of tough issues. On this context, India and the Taliban want one another, however their relationship at finest can be restricted and transactional.”

Planning to go to New Delhi quickly for the primary time, Amir-Abdollahian may work out extra methods for extending India and Iran’s function in Afghanistan. In response to the Iranian international ministry, Jaishankar expressed pleasure over the forthcoming go to of Iran’s prime diplomat and known as it a “excellent alternative to develop bilateral cooperation.”