Morocco — a top fertiliser producer — could hold a key to the world’s food supply

Morocco has a big fertiliser business with big manufacturing capability and worldwide attain. It is likely one of the world’s high 4 fertiliser exporters following Russia, China and Canada.

Fertilisers are likely to divide into three fundamental classes; nitrogen fertilisers, phosphorus fertilisers, potassium fertilisers. In 2020 the fertiliser market measurement was about $190 billion.

Morocco has distinct benefit within the manufacturing of phosphorus fertilisers. It possesses over 70 per cent of the world’s phosphate rock reserves, from which the phosphorus utilized in fertilisers is derived. And this makes Morocco a gatekeeper of worldwide meals provide chains as a result of all meals crops require the factor phosphorus to develop. Certainly, so does all flora. In contrast to different finite sources, resembling fossil fuels, there isn’t any various to phosphorus.

In 2021, the worldwide phosphorus fertiliser market amounted to about $59 billion. In Morocco, the sector’s 2020 revenues amounted to $5.94 billion. Workplace Chérifien des Phosphates, the producer owned by the Moroccan state, accounted for about 20 per cent of the dominion’s export revenues. It is usually the nation’s largest employer, offering jobs for 21,000 individuals.

Morocco plans to provide a further 8.2 million tonnes of phosphorus fertiliser by 2026. At the moment manufacturing is at about 12 million tonnes.

The state firm lately introduced that it will enhance its fertiliser manufacturing for the 12 months by 10 per cent. This is able to put a further 1.2 million tonnes on the worldwide market by the tip of the 12 months. This may considerably assist markets.

However, as I argue in a brand new report, Morocco faces new challenges. Its manufacturing of fertiliser is threatened by more and more daunting environmental and financial challenges. They embrace the COVID pandemic and the extreme provide chain disruptions which have adopted.

The timing to handle these is essential.

Russia is presently the world’s largest fertiliser exporter – 15.1 per cent of whole exported fertilisers. And fertiliser represents one of many best vulnerabilities for each Europe and Africa. As an illustration, the EU27 (all the 27 member state of the European Union) as an entire will depend on Russia for 30 per cent of its fertiliser provide. Russia’s advantageous place is amplified by its standing because the world’s second-largest pure fuel producer. Fuel is a fundamental part of all phosphorus fertilisers in addition to nitrogen fertilisers.

Due to this, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has critical implications for world meals safety. Each by way of provide, and likewise as a result of fertiliser can be utilized a financial weapon or device.

Morocco may due to this fact turn out to be central to the worldwide fertiliser market and a gatekeeper of the world’s meals provide that would offset the try to make use of fertiliser as a weapon.

The journey

Morocco began to mine phosphorous in 1921. Through the Nineteen Eighties and Nineteen Nineties it started to provide its personal fertiliser. Workplace Chérifien des Phosphates constructed the world’s largest fertiliser manufacturing hub in Jorf Lasfar on Morocco’s Atlantic coast.

Earlier than the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine warfare, the corporate had over 350 purchasers on 5 continents. About 54 per cent of phosphate fertilisers purchased in Africa come from Morocco. Moroccan fertilisers additionally account for main home market shares in India (50 per cent), Brazil (40 per cent) and Europe (41 per cent). India and Brazil have reached out to Morocco to fill further provide gaps.

Morocco’s economic system has reaped the advantages of the transformation into a world fertiliser exporting large. And in sub-Saharan Africa specifically, the mix of three way partnership partnerships in native fertiliser manufacturing and direct outreach to farmers has resulted in a exceptional enhance to African agricultural yields.

It’s additionally expanded Morocco’s comfortable energy affect throughout the continent. As an illustration, Morocco provides over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s annual fertiliser demand.

However, how effectively Morocco manages challenges to the business will have an effect on each its personal financial growth and the soundness of meals provides the world over.

The challenges

Water and vitality constraints

Phosphate extraction and fertiliser manufacturing makes use of a variety of vitality and water. Morocco’s phosphate and fertiliser business consumes about 7 per cent of its annual vitality output and 1 per cent of its water.

However Morocco is among the many nations struggling essentially the most from water shortage. This is because of a dry local weather, excessive water demand, local weather change and reservoir contamination and siltation.

Morocco is making an attempt to handle this by means of a Nationwide Water Plan 2020-2050. It envisages constructing new dams and desalination crops and increasing irrigation networks, amongst different measures, to maintain agriculture and ecosystems. It’s estimated to value about US$40 billion.

Pure fuel prices

Nitrogen is the opposite fundamental fertiliser factor that crops want. Diammonium phosphate, the preferred kind of phosphorus fertiliser worldwide (and which Morocco makes together with monoammonium), consists of 46 per cent phosphorus and 18 per cent nitrogen. Pure fuel accounts for at the very least 80 per cent of the variable value of nitrogen fertiliser.

This implies the worth of pure fuel massively impacts manufacturing prices. However Morocco has scant pure fuel sources. And pure fuel costs have been hovering.

How effectively Morocco manages the food-water-energy nexus will have an effect on each its personal financial growth and the soundness of meals provides the world over.

Some solutions

The secret’s to broaden its renewable vitality sector. Morocco holds appreciable photo voltaic and wind sources. Fertiliser manufacturing may turn out to be powered by renewable vitality, and renewable vitality may very well be used throughout the fertiliser itself.

In 2020, the state’s fertiliser firm lined 89 per cent of its vitality wants by co-generation (producing two or extra types of vitality from a single gasoline supply) and renewable vitality sources. Its goal is to ultimately cowl 100 per cent of its vitality wants on this method.

Renewable vitality may be used throughout the fertiliser itself. As a substitute of importing ammonia derived from pure fuel, Morocco may produce its personal utilizing hydrogen produced from its home renewable vitality sources.

In accordance with the state firm, 31 per cent of its water wants are met with “unconventional” water sources, together with handled wastewater and desalinated seawater.

Morocco’s rising reliance on desalination crops to fulfill industrial, agricultural and residential wants would require sizeable new investments in energy technology from renewable vitality sources. Desalination crops require 10 instances the quantity of vitality to provide the identical quantity of water as standard floor water therapy.

To maintain operations and broaden inexperienced ammonia manufacturing, Morocco must strike a cautious stability between its fertiliser exports, its drive to broaden its high-value agricultural exports and the supply of consuming water to its inhabitants.

Utilizing its giant photo voltaic vitality sources to energy inexperienced hydrogen and inexperienced ammonia manufacturing, together with desalination, Morocco may escape the vicious cycle of the upward spiralling of costs within the food-energy-water nexus.

Michaël Tanchum, Affiliate Senior Coverage Fellow, European Council on International Relations and Professor , Universidad de Navarra

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