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Al-Qaida has a haven in Afghanistan beneath the Taliban and “elevated freedom of motion” with the potential of launching new long-distance assaults in coming years, a UN report primarily based on intelligence equipped by member states says.
The evaluation, by the UN committee charged with imposing sanctions on the Taliban and others which will threaten the safety of Afghanistan, will elevate issues that the nation might as soon as once more develop into a base for worldwide terrorist assaults after the withdrawal of US and Nato troops final yr.
Critics of the US president, Joe Biden, will level to the report’s description of a “shut relationship” between al-Qaida and the Taliban as proof that his determination to drag out all US forces was an error.
Nonetheless, a feared inflow of international extremists to Afghanistan has not materialised, with solely a small variety of arrivals detected.
Although al-Qaida has been overshadowed by the violence of Islamic State in recent times, it stays a possible menace with a presence in elements of south Asia, the Center East and the Sahel. A number of dozen al-Qaida senior leaders are primarily based in Afghanistan, in addition to affiliated teams comparable to al-Qaida within the Indian Subcontinent.
The Taliban have repeatedly mentioned they’re adhering to an settlement they signed with the US in 2020, earlier than taking energy, by which they promised to battle terrorists, they usually have insisted Afghanistan is not going to be used as a launching pad for assaults in opposition to different nations.
The report credit the Taliban with making efforts to restrain al-Qaida, however raises issues that these might not final.
An undisclosed variety of al-Qaida members are reported to be residing in Kabul’s former diplomatic quarter, the place they might have entry to conferences on the international affairs ministry, the report’s authors say, though they are saying this data is just not confirmed.
The report additionally says a sudden spate of statements and communications from al-Qaida’s chief, Ayman al-Zawahiri, suggests “he might be able to lead extra successfully than was attainable earlier than the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan”.
A earlier UN report mentioned Zawahiri was significantly in poor health, and a few officers have instructed the 70-year-old could also be lifeless.
The Egyptian-born veteran militant has centered on increasing grassroots help and presence within the Islamic world since taking on al-Qaida in 2011, when Osama bin Laden was killed in a US particular forces raid in Pakistan.
Though the group is unlikely to mount or direct assaults outdoors Afghanistan for the subsequent yr or two, owing to an absence of functionality and Taliban restraint, its long-term goal remains to be to return to “international jihad”, the report says.
It says the Taliban’s dedication to stopping al-Qaida from launching a global terrorism marketing campaign “is unsure within the medium to long run”. This effort acquired a lift when the Taliban took over Kabul, it says, with al-Qaida in a position to make use of the obvious victory of the Islamist militia to draw new recruits and funding and encourage associates globally.
In April al-Qaida launched a video by which Zawahiri praised an Indian Muslim lady who in February defied a ban on sporting the standard headband, or hijab. The footage was the primary proof in additional than a yr that he was alive.
A earlier video of Zawahiri, which circulated on the anniversary final yr of 9/11, didn’t confer with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in mid-August. It did point out the assault on 1 January 2021 assault on Russian troops close to the northern Syrian metropolis of Raqqa.
In his most up-to-date video, Zawahiri referred to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, blaming “US weak point” for the conflict. “Right here [the US] is after its defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan, after the financial disasters attributable to the 9/11 invasions, after the corona pandemic, and after it left its ally Ukraine as prey for the Russians,” he mentioned.
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The UN report suggests most senior al-Qaida leaders are at present primarily based within the jap area of Afghanistan, from Zabul province north in direction of Kunar and alongside the border with Pakistan. The border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan is lined with inhospitable hills which have served as strongholds for a variety of militant teams.
The Taliban tried to limit the actions of Bin Laden when in energy in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, however didn’t forestall a sequence of assaults on US targets that culminated within the 9/11 assaults.
Like al-Qaida, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan, which has been combating the Taliban, is just not thought able to mounting worldwide assaults earlier than 2023 on the earliest, the UN report says. The group is believed to have 1,500-4,000 fighters, additionally concentrated within the east of Afghanistan.
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