Can a new EU strategy bring EU and Gulf actors closer together?

Relations between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf international locations have been on life help for a very long time. Ever since an early push for a free commerce settlement between the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foundered in 2008, few critical efforts have been made to revive the connection. As a substitute, the 2 sides have turn into consultants at speaking previous one another, blithely skidding from disaster to disaster. Whether or not it’s Iran’s nuclear risk, the Houthis in Yemen, the Libyan civil warfare, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has usually been tough for the EU and the Gulf to discover a joint perspective or a typical trigger.

That is even though each side share many pursuits. As collectively they symbolize 20% of world GDP, each Europe and the Gulf are among the many primary beneficiaries of globalization and have a typical curiosity in preserving a rules-based worldwide order and safe sea and land traces of communication. Additionally from that perspective, each stand to learn from peace and stability of their shared neighborhood. The breadth of those widespread curiosity is commonly articulated through the EU-GCC Joint Council and Ministerial conferences, the twenty sixth session of which passed off in February 2022.

However none of these shared pursuits have generated an urge to take cooperation to any vital degree past the bilateral ties of particular person international locations. As a substitute, the connection has usually been characterised by distrust and misconceptions. Within the Gulf, the EU’s “comfortable energy” method and value-loaded language is seen as naïve and intrusive; within the EU, the militaristic posturing and zero-sum politics of the Gulf are seen as authoritarian energy politics. Neither aspect has had sufficient endurance and management to bridge the divide, with main EU member states fortunately managing their bilateral affairs across the EU.

Till now that’s. On Could 18, the EU made the primary critical effort in a very long time to bridge this hole, by introducing a proposal for a “Strategic Partnership with the Gulf.” The proposal by the European Fee, nonetheless to be deliberated by the European Parliament and EU member states, identifies six areas for enhanced cooperation: prosperity, the power transition, international safety, humanitarian support, people-to-people contacts, and institutional relations.

The proposal comes at a time of rising concern in Brussels and Washington concerning the Gulf’s regular drift towards China and Russia. It additionally coincides with the conclusion in Europe that the EU’s ambitions for a carbon-neutral future, mockingly, might require extra cooperation with the world’s largest carbon producers. On this context, the EU’s proposal represents an effort to sharpen its regional profile and relaunch itself as a strategic companion for the Gulf international locations.

To take action, the EU places ahead a laundry listing of concepts and recommendations, together with some evergreens similar to reviving negotiations for a commerce settlement and facilitating a regional safety dialogue. Nonetheless, the technique additionally seeks to interrupt new floor in plenty of methods.

Initially, it pledges to considerably improve the EU presence within the Gulf. The EU’s illustration is to successfully double, by the opening of a brand new delegation to Qatar, a potential EU delegation to Oman, and an EU ambassador to the GCC. As well as, the EU will nominate a particular consultant for Gulf safety, to higher interact GCC international locations on regional safety points, and there are concerns for an EU Chamber of Commerce within the Gulf to facilitate enterprise ties. These efforts are essential as they’ll allow the EU to turn into extra seen within the Gulf and assist reinforce EU cohesion on the bottom. Nonetheless, it stays to be seen whether or not Gulf international locations will reciprocate by upgrading their very own diplomatic illustration in Brussels, the place the present course is blended. At current, not all Gulf international locations have a separate mission to the EU and the variety of Gulf diplomats accredited to the EU stays comparatively restricted.

Second, the inexperienced power transition will emerge as a brand new central focus for EU-GCC relations. On the one hand, the EU is raring to faucet into the big renewable power potential that Gulf international locations provide to assist ease Europe’s transition to a carbon-neutral future. A lot has already occurred on the bilateral degree between European and GCC international locations and the EU is not directly enjoying catch-up right here. Alternatively, the EU desires to muster the monetary spending energy of the Gulf states to be able to collectively assist poorer international locations transition towards renewables. To assist deliver this about, varied working group and dialogue codecs are being proposed, in addition to potential trilateral tasks. Extra instantly, nonetheless, the main target is prone to be on what the Gulf international locations can do to assist the EU wean itself off of its dependence on Russian oil and gasoline — whereas conserving in examine the rise in oil costs.

Third, the EU pledges to play a higher political and safety function within the Gulf. The appointment of the aforementioned EU particular consultant for Gulf safety can be supported by an annual EU-GCC political dialogue, consultations on multilateral points, and sectoral ministerial conferences. As well as, the EU envisages a brand new cooperation mechanism on maritime safety, in addition to enhanced cooperation on counter-terrorism, countering violent extremism, and cyber safety. Whereas these efforts symbolize a very good begin, the EU is prone to discover it tough to make headway in these areas, given political variations on a number of fronts, from arms exports, to human rights, and privateness considerations. Nonetheless, enhanced engagement, away from the general public gallery, might assistance on these points.

Lastly, the EU seeks to forge shut people-to-people ties with the Gulf international locations. Right here the pledge for visa-free entry to the EU for Gulf residents and higher instructional cooperation by the EU’s Erasmus+ program seem most promising. Whereas EU proposals on this space dovetail with the GCC’s current give attention to youth and gender, its people-centric method and efforts to share greatest follow on varied social points are prone to evoke restricted enthusiasm with the extra hierarchically-organized Gulf international locations.

All in all, these proposals, together with varied different suggestion made within the technique, present an essential start line for reviving EU-GCC relations. They quantity to an acknowledgment by the EU of the Gulf’s rising strategic significance and so they provide plenty of new concepts that will assist to ease enduring EU-GCC tensions, whereas re-focusing consideration on shared considerations.

However the proposal stays missing in different features. For starters, it fails to develop a transparent imaginative and prescient or trajectory for EU-GCC relations. In stark distinction with the optimistic growth visions adopted by lots of the Gulf international locations, or their partnerships with third international locations, it accommodates no topline objectives, fixes no concrete targets, and develops no political imaginative and prescient of its personal. As a substitute, in typical EU model, it loses itself within the technical particulars of dialogues and initiatives. This, sadly, will do little to seize the eye and ambitions of Gulf companions.

Oddly, the technique additionally gives little or no consideration to what’s a power of the EU and a rising focus of the Gulf international locations — specifically cooperation on analysis and innovation. Whereas GCC partnerships with different third international locations are habitually full of plans for large-scale cooperation on every thing from blockchain, to synthetic intelligence, and quantum computing, the EU technique gives a meager paragraph on analysis and innovation together with an analogous one how the GCC can be a part of EU area applications. This, sadly, looks like a misplaced alternative. With Gulf international locations making strides to determine themselves as leaders in various areas similar to synthetic intelligence, the digital financial system, meals tech, and biotechnology, in addition to plans for establishing superior industries, a case might be made for a extra forward-leaning EU coverage in relation to joint analysis and growth.

Furthermore, the technique additionally tiptoes across the rising geopolitical realities of the area. There is no such thing as a clear response to China’s Belt and Street Initiative, little give attention to shared areas of concern just like the Indian Ocean or Pink Sea, and little consideration being paid to the budding GCC-Africa relations. Whereas there could also be good causes to circuitously broach these points, the issue is that the technique does little to find a GCC-EU vector in these altering dynamics.

Lastly, regardless of all of the speak of GCC “actorness,” the technique stays strongly EU-centric. By and huge, GCC international locations are provided an opportunity to hitch EU devices, study from EU greatest follow, and take part in EU applications. EU guidelines and laws stay the measure of issues, and the main target is on bringing the GCC into the EU’s regulatory orbit. Whereas this does make sense from an EU perspective and dovetails with the EU’s self-image as a regulatory superpower, it doesn’t mirror the present temper within the Gulf. Quite the opposite, there’s a rising view within the Gulf of EU guidelines and laws as discriminatory and constraining, and a reluctance to just accept the EU’s management right here.

This speaks to a much bigger subject in EU-Gulf relations that additionally shines by within the EU proposal. Each side proceed to seek out it obscure and navigate one another’s political and decision-making programs. Within the Gulf, the EU’s extremely institutionalized, bottom-up, and bureaucratic method meets a extra hierarchical and outcome-driven decision-making system that values pace and impression over checks-and-balances and affected person progress. The ensuing disconnect results in misunderstandings and makes it tough for the 2 sides to align.

It stays to be seen how far the EU’s proposed technique can be amended within the EU’s inter-institutional course of — already there are some requires a higher give attention to human rights. Whatever the final result of this course of, the technique delivers a optimistic impulse for EU-Gulf relations, and EU efforts to boost its presence and turn into extra politically engaged within the Gulf are a step in the precise course. Nonetheless, the doc is not more than that: a primary step towards constructing a extra strategic partnership. And as within the many years main as much as this step, the 2 sides will meet acquainted challenges on the best way.

Dr. Timo Behr is a non-resident fellow on the Finnish Institute of Worldwide Affairs and a Topic Matter Professional on the Hague Heart for Strategic Research. He’s additionally the Co-Managing Director of MacroScope Methods, a technique and authorities affairs consultancy. 

Saskia M. van Genugten is a non-resident senior fellow at MEI, a analysis fellow on the Netherlands Defence Academy, and an affiliate director at MacroScope Methods. The opinions expressed on this piece are their very own.

Picture by KARIM JAAFAR/AFP through Getty Photographs