Pushed over the edge: Political and military dynamics at the Afghanistan-Pakistan border

Frequent and violent border clashes have created political tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This will likely shock observers, since Afghanistan is being dominated by the Afghan Taliban, lengthy supported by Pakistan’s safety institution. Latest incidents illustrate, nonetheless, that whereas the pursuits of Pakistan and its shoppers in Kabul could typically converge, they’re hardly similar. Divergent political ideologies, nationwide histories, and strategic goals are driving them aside on many essential points.

Because the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, cross-border assaults on Pakistani safety forces have spiked, and the scenario has deteriorated over the previous few months. Pakistan’s latest airstrikes inside Afghan territory have solely added gasoline to the fireplace. Based on reviews from the Afghan authorities, on April 16, the Pakistani military carried out drone strikes within the border provinces of Kunar and Khost in jap Afghanistan towards exiled Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists. Whereas the mission focused the TTP in retribution for its assassination of seven Pakistani troopers simply sooner or later prior, 47 Afghan civilians additionally misplaced their lives within the operation. The Taliban warned Islamabad of “penalties” for its “invasions,” whereas Pakistan chided the Taliban regime for giving sanctuary to anti-Pakistan militants. Reluctant to additional fray ties with the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan is but to take official duty for the airstrikes in Afghanistan.

The Afghan Taliban’s return to energy doesn’t appear to have pacified Kabul’s conduct towards Islamabad. The Pakistani state, for its half, has failed to point out the management, political talent, and strategic creativeness needed to finish the cycle of jihadist violence. It might have dawned on Pakistan that one thing has gone horribly incorrect. Might this realization set off some salutary soul-searching in Rawalpindi? Unlikely. Although it’s by no means too late to appropriate course, Pakistan stays a garrison state with jihadist strands so deeply interwoven into the material of the military that teasing them out is close to unattainable.

The TTP has used the border area as a secure haven, towards which the Afghan Taliban regime has refused to take concrete motion regardless of Pakistan’s repeated requests. The Taliban’s lack of ability to determine a monopoly on the legit use of pressure might also be luring TTP fighters to Afghan soil. The TTP is just not the one cross-border safety menace going through Pakistan; Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Baloch fighters are additionally hiding out in Afghanistan. Regardless of these challenges, the Pakistan army is sticking to its conventional orientation whereby India is thought to be the principal army menace. The military chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa’s makes an attempt at a geopolitical realignment — potential counterterrorism cooperation with Washington and the pursuit of detente with India — appear to have foundered on Imran Khan’s reckless international coverage, anti-American nationalist rhetoric, and resolute refusal to fade into political oblivion, in addition to India’s robust stance towards Pakistan.

Because the Afghan Taliban got here again to energy in Afghanistan final August, raids on Pakistani troopers have escalated inside North and South Waziristan, exerting intense strain on the safety equipment. In opposition to this background, Pakistan’s retaliatory airstrikes concentrating on militant sanctuaries inside Afghanistan clearly underline Rawalpindi’s frustration with the Afghan Taliban’s inaction. Pakistan is hitting again as a result of it doesn’t know what else to do. Even when Pakistan can act with little concern of repercussions, the query stays whether or not deadly pressure will compel the Afghan Taliban to heed Pakistan’s calls for. On the contrary, retaliatory strikes towards the TTP secure havens may very properly harden the Taliban regime’s place.

Pakistan’s success in serving to the Taliban to regain its grip on Afghanistan had made Rawalpindi assured of its capability to remodel regional geopolitics extra broadly. However the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has solely made issues worse for Pakistan’s safety institution, as varied splinter factions of the TTP are actually reuniting. To grasp why the TTP strikes such concern into the hearts of Pakistanis, one should keep in mind that the group’s bloodbath of 150 folks, principally kids, at a faculty in Peshawar in 2014 stays one of many deadliest terror assaults within the nation’s historical past. In retaliation, the Pakistan army ruthlessly pursued the TTP, which severely undermined the group’s lethality and operational effectivity. The TTP now appears higher organized and outfitted, since lots of its fighters, launched from Afghan jails after the U.S. withdrawal, are launching well-coordinated assaults into Pakistan.

The TTP condemned Pakistan’s bombardment of Afghan territory, saying, “We problem the Pakistan military to battle us on the battlefield as a substitute of bombing oppressed folks and refugee camps.” Ugly although the TTP could also be, many of the latest assaults towards Pakistani forces in North Waziristan are the handiwork of Hafiz Gul Bahadur group, infamous for its shut linkages with al-Qaeda and the Haqqani Community. Pakistan’s army planners have to be feeling trapped in a pointless, escalating rivalry with their erstwhile proxies in Kabul, who share many ideological affinities with teams demanding the imposition of sharia legislation in Pakistan. 

Tensions between the 2 nations come at a time when Pakistan is shouldering an amazing burden for its diplomatic recognition of the Afghan Taliban’s regime and for lifting financial sanctions towards them. However Islamabad’s overtures appear to not have mollified the Afghan Taliban, because the excellent points between the 2 nations make it troublesome to create an surroundings through which friendship may flourish.

Terrorist sanctuaries aren’t the one bone of competition between the 2 nations. The Afghan Taliban really feel aggrieved by border fences constructed by Pakistan alongside the disputed Durand Line to curb unlawful cross-border motion, and have been steadily dismantling them at varied locations. Pakistan’s efforts embody the development of border posts in addition to rising the manpower of the Frontier Corps, Pakistan’s paramilitary pressure guarding the border with Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban have made no secret of their need to keep up an open border for the sake of Pashtuns inhabiting the area. Although earlier Afghan governments had chafed at Pakistani makes an attempt to erect fences, that they had not made any critical efforts to cease development. If the Afghan Taliban, in collaboration with the TTP, proceed to sabotage the fencing, it might solely exacerbate bilateral tensions.

Given Pakistan’s superior pressure, Afghanistan will do its finest to keep away from direct armed battle with its neighbor. In the meantime, Pakistan, which is presently going through financial catastrophe, political instability, and inner disunity, additionally doesn’t desire a showdown with Afghanistan.  Pakistan may, nonetheless, be jolted into motion if Rawalpindi determines that nothing in need of a army operation may safe its goals on the opposite aspect of the Durand Line. Thus, open battle is unbelievable however hardly inconceivable. Even when the weapons stay silent, army brinkmanship may worsen diplomatic paralysis. In short, full battle decision by means of bargaining and compromise appears a distant chance. The disputed border and terrorist sanctuaries stay Pakistan’s central dilemmas in Afghanistan; neither one lends itself to fast fixes.

Vinay Kaura, PhD, is a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI’s Afghanistan & Pakistan Program, an Assistant Professor within the Division of Worldwide Affairs and Safety Research on the Sardar Patel College of Police, Safety, and Legal Justice in Rajasthan, India, and the Deputy Director on the Middle for Peace and Battle Research. The views expressed on this piece are his personal.

Photograph by AFP through Getty Pictures