Turkey’s pro-Western policy reversal reveals Erdogan’s dilemma

Turkey is not the remoted nation it was 21 days in the past.

The ruthless Russian invasion in Ukraine that started Feb. 24 has modified all the things. The post-post-Chilly Struggle period in world historical past has been inaugurated. The strongest risk of nuclear conflict because the Cuban missile disaster of 1960 has emerged. The interior conflicts that plague the Euro-Atlantic relationship have pale away. NATO, in a manner, has been reborn, attracting nations like Finland and Sweden. The West, in unity, has positioned itself in opposition to an aggressive Russia with unprecedentedly robust sanctions.

Equally, Turkey’s standing has modified drastically. It’s not regionally and internationally remoted as a consequence of its belligerent, revisionist overseas coverage.

Throughout the span of per week after the invasion, Turkey moved out of isolation. It regained its relevance within the worldwide enviornment, maybe at a stage unseen over the last decade. Ankara is the one capital that managed to convey Russian and Ukrainian overseas ministers to the negotiating desk for the primary time since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked and unjustified conflict within the Ukrainian territory. 

Russia’s International Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, gathered in a three-way assembly in Antalya as a consequence of Turkish International Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s initiative and in his presence.

The assembly earned Turkey reward by UN Secretary-Basic Antonio Guterres, who thanked Turkey for its efforts. He listed Turkey as one of many nations that contributed to peace efforts together with France, Germany, Israel, India and China. Together with cellphone calls with varied European leaders, Erdogan additionally met with NATO Secretary-Basic Jens Stoltenberg on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Discussion board.

Erdogan introduced that Cavusoglu was set to journey to Moscow March 15 and thereafter to Ukraine on March 17 as a part of Ankara’s shuttle diplomacy between the 2 nations. 

Turkey is irrelevant no extra. Quite the opposite. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a one-hour cellphone name with Putin, adopted by one other dialog with President Joe Biden — a long-awaited cellphone name between the US and Turkish leaders.

In accordance with the White Home, Biden and Erdogan “mentioned their shared concern about Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine” and reaffirmed their sturdy help for Ukraine. 

Biden additionally expressed his appreciation for “Turkey’s efforts to help a diplomatic decision to the battle, in addition to Turkey’s latest engagements with regional leaders that assist promote peace and stability.”

Solely hours after that cellphone name, Erdogan welcomed Israeli President Isaac Herzog at a red-carpet ceremony with full honors in Ankara, laying the groundwork for normalization between the 2 nations. 

Herzog’s go to was adopted by a gathering between Erdogan and Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The 2 leaders had a cordial encounter regardless of lingering tensions over conflicting territorial disputes within the Japanese Mediterranean that rattled NATO’s southern flank. It appears Mitsotakis’ go to went properly, as a part of efforts to consolidate NATO’s southeastern flank.

Poland’s President Andrzej Duda is ready to journey to Turkey March 16 as the most recent overseas dignitary that Ankara will host within the span of per week. Earlier than Duda, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in Ankara on March 14. The go to was significantly essential as Germany is a number one actor in shaping Turkey’s ties with the EU. When Social-Democrat Scholz fashioned his authorities with the Greens, who had been staunchly essential of Erdogan’s authorities, the broadly held expectation was that German-Turkish relations had been getting ready to a problematic interval.

But Russian aggression in Ukraine shook up these expectations. Following a gathering that lasted greater than three hours, Erdogan and Scholz stood in entrance of journalists like two buddies glad with one another’s alliance.

Regardless of all this, the German press was cautious about future ties. German every day Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung warned {that a} real rapprochement with the EU and Ankara shouldn’t be anticipated until Ankara improves its failing human rights document drastically, in response to Germany’s state-owned Deutsche Welle. One other German every day, Kolnischer Rundschau, pressured that whereas the conflict in Ukraine pushed the variations between the 2 nations backstage, the issues between the 2 nations stay. 

The German media was additionally essential of Scholz for timidly mentioning Turkey’s human rights document throughout his presser with Erdogan. The German media shops underlined that it might be unsustainable for the German authorities to melt its strategy vis-a-vis Erdogan with out angering its voter base, recalling that the federal government pledged to offer human rights points a central place in its overseas coverage when taking workplace.

Nonetheless, Germany’s Turkey observers and consultants additionally famous the shift in Turkey’s rapprochement to the West amid Russia’s invasion. For the reason that breakout of the conflict, Ankara seems to be drifting from its Eurasianist deviation and making an attempt to recalibrate its relations with the Western capitals regardless of the prevalent pro-Russian and anti-West discourse within the pro-government media.

In an article titled “Erdogan’s tightrope act: Within the battle on Ukraine, Turkey is shifting cautiously towards the West,” Gunter Seufert, head of the Turkey division on the SWP — an influential German suppose tank — listed the optimistic indicators that Ankara has given because the invasion started, noting its regular help for Ukraine.

“The ranks of the adversaries are closing. It’s turning into harder for Turkey to proceed its dearly held seesaw coverage,” Seufert noticed, referring to Ankara’s balancing act between Russia and america. 

Nevertheless, it’s not practical to anticipate Erdogan to be on the identical web page together with his NATO allies and the European counterparts regarding the sanctions imposed in opposition to Russia on the present stage. Turkey could be very susceptible to Russia by way of its power wants. The nation’s financial system can be reliant on Russian imports, significantly wheat and sunflower, in addition to Russian vacationers.

Maintaining its airspace open to flights to and from Russia and the maritime commerce routes within the Black Sea open, Turkey, in a manner, is undermining the collective Western efforts for Putin to pay a price for his aggression in opposition to Ukraine. Furthermore, being cautious to not alienate Russia, it has offered a podium to Russian officers because it did to Lavrov in Antalya. 

Erdogan tasks himself as a vital worldwide statesman by his mediation efforts. This will play properly for his home political calculations whereas his help inside Turkey is steadily eroding amid financial turmoil forward of the fateful elections scheduled for 2023.

Nevertheless, the prolongation of conflict in Ukraine has the potential to have a harmful influence on Turkey far more than another nation. It might additionally undermine the sustainability of Erdogan’s strategic autonomy in opposition to the West, which he rigorously crafted. His room to maneuver might steadily slender because the conflict goes on, forcing him to face both with the West or with Putin.

Seeing Putin on the dropping aspect can immediate him to tilt extra towards the West, albeit cautiously — a course of that seemingly has already began. But he must go the additional mile. He should democratize the regime and rescind the chief presidential system that has been in place since 2018. That’s exactly what the opposition in Turkey is pledging to do forward of the upcoming elections.

Erdogan can’t preserve his one-man rule and be the staunch member of the Western camp on the identical time. The conflict in Ukraine, which pushed him towards adopting a extra pro-Western stand incipiently, will ultimately dictate a dilemma for Erdogan: Figuring out he can’t survive within the West as a Turkish model of Putin after the game-changing conflict in Ukraine, he should make radical home and overseas coverage selections.