Three historical lessons to humanity

The present Russia-Ukraine disaster in 2022 offers three historic classes which don’t match within the two opposing (pro-Western vs. pro-Russian) narratives usually present in mainstream mass media around the globe.

1st Lesson: Pushing Too Far by one Facet Dangers a Violent Response from the Different Facet

The primary lesson is that when a significant energy (or energy bloc) pushes too far for its imperial objectives in opposition to a rival energy (or energy bloc), there’s the excessive threat of a violent response from the latter in due time.

Traditionally, the autumn of the Soviet Union within the Nineties resulted within the (non permanent) “unipolar second” for the U. S., with its “finish of historical past” hubris after the tip of the Chilly Battle. This resulted within the domino impact to soak up many ex-Soviet allies and republics by the Western alliance, as new members of NATO and/or the EU.

The lengthy listing of those international locations absorbed by the Western alliance seems like a fairy story to the West however a worst nightmare to Russia.

These international locations which now develop into new members of NATO embrace:

• Albania,
• Bulgaria,
• Croatia,
• the Czech Republic,
• Estonia,
• Hungary,
• Latvia,
• Lithuania,
• Montenegro,
• North Macedonia,
• Poland,
• Romania,
• Slovakia,
• Slovenia.

These international locations which now develop into new members of the EU embrace:

• Bulgaria,
• Croatia,
• the Czech Republic,
• Estonia,
• Hungary,
• Latvia,
• Lithuania,
• Poland,
• Romania,
• Slovakia,
• Slovenia.

However these two lists don’t but embrace international locations ready to be new members.

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These navy and financial expansions of the Western alliance had caught Russia (helplessly) abruptly when it comes to their velocity and attain, as they’ve since threatened the existential safety of Russia in Europe. What was as soon as considered wishful pondering is now an alarming actuality to Russia, which is that the missiles (and different deadly weapons) deployed in these new NATO international locations (bordering Russia) can now attain Russia in a matter of some minutes.

There’s a déjà vu of this geostrategic disaster earlier than, particularly, the Cuban missile disaster of 1962, when the U. S. felt threatened by the Soviet try to put in ballistic missiles in Cuba (in retaliation to the American deployments of Jupiter ballistic missiles in Italy and Turkey to focus on the Soviet Union). The disaster was lastly resolved, when the Soviet Union agreed to withdraw the missiles from Cuba, and the U. S. agreed to withdraw the Jupiter missiles from Turkey and Italy.

However the Soviet Union was lengthy gone. Right now, Russian president Vladimir Putin makes it very clear to the Western alliance that there must be an finish of NATO enlargement and of its navy deployments alongside the Russian border in Europe. The U. S. and its allies categorically reject Putin’s calls for (“safety ensures”) and demand that it’s their “proper” to just accept new members (like Ukraine and others) as they see match and conduct navy actions in Japanese Europe as they deem needed.

The peace negotiation has thus failed. So now there’s the violent response from the opposite facet, particularly, the Russia-Ukraine disaster in 2022.

2nd Lesson: Energy is a Double-Edged Sword in Ruthless Geopolitics

The second lesson is that energy is a double-edged sword in a ruthless geopolitical recreation for domination (whether or not regional or international) by opposing sides.

In political philosophy, as an instructional endeavor, one can debate, unto the tip of time, whether or not it’s “simply” or “proper” for the Western alliance to increase its navy attain all the best way to the border with Russia — or, conversely, whether or not it’s “simply” or “proper” for Russia to militarily stop any neighboring nation from becoming a member of NATO as a menace to its existential safety.

However, in geopolitics, as a ruthless recreation, energy speaks loudly however is a double-edged sword, because it usually carries the day within the brief time period however perpetuates the vicious cycle of violence in the long run. As an example, why does the Western alliance exert its farthest navy enlargement all the best way to the yard of Russia, with the clear understanding that the latter fiercely opposes it? The reply is: “As a result of it could.” Then, in a counter transfer, why does Russia beneath Putin militarily assault Ukraine, with the clear understanding that the latter and its Western supporters vocally disapprove of it? The reply is identical: “As a result of it could.” However then, in a counter-counter transfer,…the cycle continues.

So, if one facet doesn’t like what the opposite facet does, the result will rely on which facet has extra energy to subdue the opposite facet, although in a double-edged method. As an example, the U. S. beneath Biden has tried totally different means to cease Russia: financial sanctions, verbal condemnations, emotional appeals, deployments of U. S. troops to NATO international locations bordering Russia, shipments of deadly weapons to Ukraine, the American coaching of Ukrainian troops, the declassification of secret intelligence about Russian navy actions, a united diplomatic entrance with Western allies, and so on. All these efforts have damage Russia however haven’t succeeded in stopping the vicious cycle of violence.

The identical might be stated concerning the blended outcomes of Russian efforts over time to cease Western infiltrations into ex-Soviet republics and allies — just like the lengthy listing of latest NATO members, on one hand, and the equally lengthy listing of nations nonetheless beneath Russian affect within the Eurasian continent (to be addressed hereafter), however.

Thus, energy is a double-edged sword, because it usually carries the day within the brief time period however perpetuates the vicious cycle of violence in the long run. Simply replicate over all of the “countless wars” wherein the U. S. has engaged within the twentieth century, or what the human world has gone by with ever new violent conflicts over the millennia, till this point in time.

third Lesson: A Weak Nation Coping with Rival Powers is Higher off with Neutrality

The third lesson is {that a} weak nation coping with rival powers (or energy blocs) is healthier off with political neutrality by being good to each, since an specific alliance with one on the expense of the opposite (that’s, with “a thumbs up” to at least one facet and “a center finger” to the opposite facet) will end in a extra unstable and harmful existence.

The 2 “colour revolutions” (with Western infiltrations after the collapse of the Soviet Union) in Ukraine and Georgia illustrate this extra harmful existence. The failure of Georgia to develop into a brand new member of NATO after the Russo-Georgian Battle in 2008 is an efficient lesson for Ukraine within the present Russo-Ukrainian Battle in 2022. The professional-Western overseas coverage after the “Rose Revolution” in Georgia in 2003 (particularly beneath the management of Mikheil Saakashvili) had worsened relations with Russia, ensuing within the Russo-Georgian Battle in 2008, permitting Russia to acknowledge the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia — with subsequent Russian navy presence in Georgia. Equally, the pro-Western overseas coverage after the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine in 2004 (particularly beneath the present management of Volodymyr Zelenskyy) had worsened relations with Russia, ensuing within the Russo-Ukrainian Battle in 2022, permitting Russia to acknowledge the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine — with subsequent Russian navy presence in Ukraine, as it’s so now.

The foremost blunder dedicated by Mikheil Saakashvili in Georgia then and by Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ukraine now could be their one-sided pro-Western overseas coverage with an ambition to hitch NATO and the EU, with out a cheap sensibility in the direction of the existential wants of Russia because the rival energy (or energy bloc) within the ruthless geopolitical competitors between the U. S.-led alliance and the Russia-led one within the area. The purpose right here is just not how one can condone imperial domination however how one can win (to not lose) in a geopolitical battle for survival in a troublesome neighborhood.

These two crises, between Russia and Georgia in 2008 and the present Russia-Ukraine disaster in 2022, might have been prevented, if a extra wise impartial overseas coverage have been taken by Saakashvili in Georgia then and by Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ukraine now, with out favoring both energy bloc (Western or Russian), whereas maximizing the advantages of being in good relations with each of them. This is identical “impartial” technique that some weak European states (like Switzerland, Malta, Liechtenstein, Sweden, and Finland) had adopted (and nonetheless do), in order to play with rival energy blocs with out being both attacked by one facet (which is rejected) or dominated by the opposite facet (which absorbs them).

Weak international locations subsequently face two existential risks in the event that they naively select a non-neutral, one-sided overseas coverage when coping with rival powers (or energy blocs), as they threat being attacked by the main energy which they reject, on one facet, or being dominated by the opposite main energy which they be part of, on the opposite facet. Weak international locations, if naively behaving in a troublesome neighborhood like this, threat residing a extra unstable and harmful life, a lot to their remorse later in a historic (cool-headed) retrospect.

Conclusion: Now What?

So what’s the impression of the Russia-Ukraine disaster in 2022 on the geopolitical recreation between the Western alliance and the Russian one within the area and in the remainder of the world? Two impacts are nearby.

First, Ukraine won’t be a part of NATO anytime quickly because of the Russia-Ukraine disaster in 2022, simply as Georgia has not been a member of NATO because of the Russia-Georgia disaster in 2008 — not but to say the lack of some territories in each circumstances. Strategically, because of this the Western alliance can hold its affect in ex-Soviet Republics (like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and ex-Soviet allies in Japanese Europe which are actually a part of NATO (like Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) — nevertheless it has reached its personal limits in pushing its affect all the best way to the yard of Russia, which incorporates not solely Ukraine but in addition Georgia and Moldova — in addition to the much more tough ones (like Belarus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan). The Western alliance can even face extra resistance within the Central Asian yard of Russia (like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan), because the latest crackdown on the unrest in Kazakhstan (with Western infiltration) in January 2022 clearly confirmed. And, in fact, there’s little or no likelihood for different pals of Russia within the Eurasian continent (like China, North Korea, India, Iran, Syria, and so on.) to develop into anti-Russian for the Western alliance.

Second, counter-measures by the Western alliance will damage not solely Russia but in addition itself. As an example, financial sanctions in opposition to Russia (like its Nord Stream fuel pipelines) not solely will trigger power shortages in Europe (and elsewhere) and intensify the inflationary strain of upper power costs within the West — but in addition will push Russia additional into a more in-depth alliance (orbit) with China for survival, which in flip reshapes the worldwide stability of energy extra unfavorable to the U. S. and its allies.

U.S. president Joseph Biden is obsessed together with his “politically correctness” on a “united” entrance with allies in opposition to Russia (and China, for that matter) in a one-sided narrative about world affairs, however this “united” technique, when pursued by either side, could properly lead the world nearer to hell by being blind to “groupthink” and thus to the three historic classes from the Russia-Ukraine disaster, in an excessive type of geopolitical isolationism (like “decoupling” as the brand new slogan in our time). The extra “united” all sides (an influence bloc) is, the extra blind it’s to “groupthink” with out studying considerably something from the sober classes of historical past, in a basic “We the Good Guys” vs. “You the Dangerous Guys” Manichaean divide, which might certainly make both facet “really feel good” (for a macho second) however also can carry the world nearer to hell later.

However the excellent news is that humanity has not been traditionally monolithic, as it’s numerous sufficient to have some dissenting voices who query this new development of geopolitical isolationism on the world stage, in order to transcend the temptation to assume or consider in a “good vs. evil” (or “good vs. dangerous”) Manichaean closing of the human thoughts on this fascinating time.

Thus communicate battle and peace in human historical past.

In regards to the creator:

Dr. Peter Baofu is an American visionary and creator of 175 scholarly books and quite a few articles (as of February 2022) to offer 141 visions (theories) of the human future in relation to the thoughts, nature, society, and tradition — and had been (or lived) in additional than 117 international locations