US or Russia? Ukraine crisis poses dilemma for wealthy Gulf

Selecting sides in Ukraine’s disaster would have as soon as been straightforward for Gulf states lengthy protected by the US, however rising ties with Moscow are forcing them to strike a steadiness.

Because the world rushed to sentence the Russian invasion of its smaller neighbour, the rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, together with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have largely saved quiet.

Center East specialists say their reticence is comprehensible given what’s at play — power, cash and safety.

“It’s not solely the financial ties which are rising, but in addition the safety ties of those states with Moscow,” mentioned Anne Gadel, a Gulf knowledgeable and contributor to the French think-tank Institut Montaigne.

On Friday, the UAE abstained together with China and India from a vote on the US Safety Council demanding Moscow withdraw its troops.

Russia as anticipated vetoed the decision co-written by the US and Albania whereas 11 of the council’s 15 members voted for it.

After the vote, Emirati state new company WAM mentioned the UAE and US international ministers spoke by cellphone to overview “international developments”. No point out was fabricated from Ukraine.

Russia’s international ministry in the meantime introduced that the UAE and Russian international ministers would meet Monday in Moscow to debate “additional increasing multifaceted Russia-UAE relations”.

Hours earlier than Russia unleashed its large floor, sea and air assault in opposition to Ukraine on Thursday, the UAE had “pressured the depth of friendship” with Moscow.

Gulf energy home Saudi Arabia has not reacted to the invasion, just like the UAE, Bahrain and Oman. Kuwait and Qatar have solely denounced the violence, stopping wanting criticising Moscow.

– ‘Ideological ally’ –

For greater than seven a long time, the USA has performed a key position within the conflict-wracked Center East, serving specifically as a defender of the oil-rich Gulf monarchies in opposition to potential threats corresponding to Iran.

However lately, Washington started limiting its navy engagements within the area, at the same time as its closest allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE have come underneath assault by Yemen’s Huthi rebels.

Saudi oil big Aramco’s amenities have been hit in 2019 by the Iran-aligned insurgents.

Gulf nations “perceive that they should diversify their alliances to compensate for the perceived withdrawal of the USA from the area”, mentioned Gadel.

Politics are paramount too.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two US allies internet hosting American troops, have seen their ties with Washington change to a love-hate relationship over arms offers and rights points.

The 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the dominion’s Istanbul consulate has strained relations with Riyadh, and the UAE has threatened to cancel a mega-deal for US-made F-35 jet fighters.

“Russia is seen as an ideological ally whereas American human rights strings hooked up to their help have gotten ever extra of a problem,” mentioned Andreas Krieg, Center East knowledgeable and affiliate professor at King’s Faculty London.

“There was an integration of grand technique between Moscow and Abu Dhabi in relation to the area. Each are counter-revolutionary forces and have been desperate to include political Islam.”

– ‘Powerful spot diplomatically’ –

Regardless of rising safety cooperation with Russia, which is instantly concerned within the Syrian and Libyan conflicts, Krieg says most GCC states will “nonetheless put their safety eggs into the US basket”.

However “they’ve began to diversify relations with American rivals and adversaries in different domains”.

Commerce between Russia and the GCC nations jumped from round $3 billion in 2016 to greater than $5 billion in 2021, largely with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, official figures present.

The UAE, specifically Dubai, has been lengthy seen as a magnet for Russian funding, and a trip vacation spot for the Russian elite.

As main gamers within the power markets, most GCC states have a relationship with Russia as fellow producers.

Riyadh and Moscow are main the OPEC+ alliance, strictly controlling output to buoy costs lately.

“Arab members of OPEC are in a troublesome spot diplomatically, as sustaining” the OPEC+ deal, which controls manufacturing, “is clearly on the forefront of their concerns”, mentioned Ellen Wald, senior fellow on the Atlantic Council think-tank.

“Gulf nations worry damaging this relationship and search to keep up Russian participation in OPEC+… If Russia left the group, the whole settlement would in all probability collapse.”

Regardless of calls by some main oil importers for crude producers to spice up provide and assist stabilise hovering costs, Riyadh, the world’s prime exporter, has proven no curiosity.

“Staying silent on Russian motion in Ukraine might be the very best course for this in the meanwhile,” Wald mentioned.

“However this pragmatic stance might develop into untenable if pressed on their place by Western leaders.”