How Russia-Ukraine conflict could influence Africa’s food supplies

No man qualifies as a statesman who’s solely blind to the issues of wheat.

The phrases of the traditional Greek thinker, Socrates.

Wheat and different grains are again on the coronary heart of geopolitics following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Each international locations play a serious position within the world agricultural market. African leaders should listen.

There’s important agricultural commerce between international locations on the continent and Russia and Ukraine. African international locations imported agricultural merchandise value $4 billion from Russia in 2020. About 90 per cent of this was wheat, and 6 per cent was sunflower oil. Main importing international locations had been Egypt, which accounted for practically half of the imports, adopted by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa.

Equally, Ukraine exported $2.9 billion value of agricultural merchandise to the African continent in 2020. About 48 per cent of this was wheat, 31 per cent maize, and the remaining included sunflower oil, barley, and soybeans.

Russia and Ukraine are substantial gamers within the world commodities market. Russia produces about 10 per cent of world wheat whereas Ukraine accounts for 4 per cent. Mixed, that is practically the dimensions of the European Union’s whole wheat manufacturing. The wheat is for home consumption in addition to export markets. Collectively, the 2 international locations account for 1 / 4 of world wheat exports. In 2020 Russia accounted for 18 per cent, and Ukraine 8 per cent.

Each international locations are additionally notable gamers in maize, accountable for a mixed maize manufacturing of 4 per cent. Nevertheless, Ukraine and Russia’s contribution is much more important in exports, accounting for 14 per cent of world maize exports in 2020. Each international locations are additionally among the many main producers and exporters of sunflower oil. In 2020, Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports accounted for 40 per cent of world exports, with Russia accounting for 18 per cent of world sunflower oil exports.

Russia’s army motion has induced panic amongst some analysts. The concern is that intensifying battle might disrupt commerce with important penalties for world meals stability.

I share these considerations, notably the implications of massive rises within the worth of world grains and oilseed. They’ve been among the many key drivers of world meals worth rises since 2020. This has been primarily due to dry climate circumstances in South America and Indonesia that resulted in poor harvests mixed with rising demand in China and India.

Disruption in commerce, due to the invasion, within the important producing area of the Black Sea would add to elevated world agricultural commodity costs – with potential knock on results for world meals costs. An increase in commodities costs was already evident simply days into the battle.

This can be a concern for the African continent, which is a web importer of wheat and sunflower oil. On high of this there are worries about drought in some areas of the continent. Disruption to shipments of commodities would add to the final worries of meals worth inflation in a area that’s an importer of wheat.

What to anticipate

The size of the potential upswing within the world grains and oilseed costs will depend upon the magnitude of disruption and the size of time that commerce will likely be affected.

For now, this may be seen as an upside threat to world agricultural commodity costs, that are already elevated. In January 2022, the FAO Meals Value Index averaged 136 factors up by 1 per cent from December 2021 — its highest since April 2011.

Vegetable oils and dairy merchandise primarily underpinned the will increase.

Within the days forward of Russia’s transfer, there was a spike within the worldwide costs of a lot of commodities. These included maize (21 per cent), wheat (35 per cent), soybeans (20 per cent) and sunflower oil (11 per cent) in comparison with the corresponding interval a 12 months in the past. That is noteworthy as 2021 costs had been already elevated.

From an African agriculture perspective, the impression of the conflict will likely be felt within the close to time period by the worldwide agriculture commodity costs channel.

An increase in costs will likely be useful for farmers. For grain and oilseed farmers, the surge in costs presents a possibility for monetary beneficial properties. This will likely be notably welcome given greater fertiliser prices which have strained farmers’ funds.

The Russia-Ukraine battle additionally comes at a time when the drought in South America and rising demand for grains and oilseeds in India and China has put stress on costs.

However rising commodity costs are dangerous information for customers who’ve already skilled meals worth rises over the previous two years.

The Russia-Ukraine battle signifies that stress on costs will persist. The 2 international locations are main contributors to world grain provides. The impression on costs from developments affecting their output can’t be understated.

Some international locations on the continent, comparable to South Africa, profit from exporting fruit to Russia. In 2020 Russia accounted for 7 per cent of South Africa’s citrus exports in worth phrases. And it accounted for 12 per cent of South Africa’s apples and pears exports in the identical 12 months — the nation’s second largest market.

However from Africa’s perspective, Russia and Ukraine’s agricultural imports from the continent are marginal — averaging solely $1,6 billion prior to now three years. The dominant merchandise are fruits, tobacco, espresso, and drinks in each international locations.

Ripple results

Each agricultural role-player is maintaining a tally of the developments within the Black Sea area. The impression will likely be felt in different areas, such because the Center East and Asia, which additionally import a considerable quantity of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine and Russia. They too will likely be straight affected by the disruption in commerce.

There’s nonetheless so much that’s not identified in regards to the geopolitical challenges that lie forward. However for African international locations there are causes to be nervous given their dependency for grains imports. Within the close to time period, international locations are doubtless see the impression by a surge in costs, somewhat than an precise scarcity of the commodities. Different wheat exporting international locations comparable to Canada, Australia and the US stand to learn from any potential close to time period surge in demand.

Finally, the purpose must be to deescalate the battle. Russia and Ukraine are deeply embedded on the planet’s agricultural and meals markets. This isn’t solely by provides but in addition by agricultural inputs comparable to oil and fertiliser.

Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Division of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch College

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