Domestic and regional implications of Yemen’s escalating conflict – Middle East Monitor

Over the previous yr, a brand new section of violence has emerged in war-torn Yemen between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi rebels. From being deadlocked by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) navy operations to the Houthis’ continued escalation and recruitment of kid troopers within the conflict, Yemenis see no finish to the battle in sight because the battle enters its eighth brutal yr.

A resurgence of violence might have regional ramifications after the Houthis claimed accountability for a drone assault on an oil facility close to the Abu Dhabi Worldwide Airport on 17 January, which killed two Indian nationals and one Pakistani nationwide.^[1] Whereas the Emirati authorities warned of “extreme repercussions” for the Houthis, and numerous allies like the US and Israel additionally denounced the assault, it demonstrates how Abu Dhabi might, as soon as once more, be drawn into the battle regardless of its earlier claims of a withdrawal from Yemen. Moreover, there could possibly be a hardening stance in opposition to Iran, which backs the Houthis.

In 2021, the Houthi rebels intensified their onslaught in opposition to the Saudi-backed authorities of Abed Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, making a number of inroads within the governorates of Marib and Shabwa. This adopted US President Joe Biden’s resolution to finish “related arms gross sales” to Saudi Arabia on 4 February, 2021, after his inauguration, following rising criticisms over Washington’s culpability within the conflict. But it evidently prompted the insurgent faction to take advantage of the drawdown from its rivals.

READ: Houthi chief says US, Israel ordered UAE to escalate in Yemen

The Houthis had set their sights on Marib, a key governorate thought of the final bastion of the Hadi authorities. Whereas the battle over Marib had initially grinded to a stalemate, the Houthis have now turned their consideration to different components of the nation. The faction even moved towards the area of Shabwa, an oil-rich province in southern Yemen. In September, the Houthis made some features within the northern a part of the governorate.

Key actors’ position within the battle

Dealing with vital reputational repercussions from the Yemen conflict, Saudi Arabia had initially toned down its operations within the Yemen conflict, notably involved that it could face additional strain from the US. The Houthis’ renewed marketing campaign has threatened Saudi geostrategic pursuits in Yemen, and the group’s firing projectiles on the Kingdom has introduced new safety threats.

Though Saudi Arabia has continued its airstrikes to guard Hadi’s forces, Riyadh has tried to make sure it could possibly nonetheless average its position within the battle to keep away from additional criticism. Following a lethal assault blamed on a Saudi airstrike on a jail in Saada in northern Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition introduced it could perform an investigation into the incident.^[2]

The UAE has stepped up its involvement within the battle as soon as extra. Beforehand, the UAE introduced a “drawdown” from the conflict in 2019. Nevertheless, its ambitions of securing affect in southern Yemen by its companion on the bottom. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) was nonetheless very a lot alive. This put it in distinction with Saudi Arabia, which supported the Hadi authorities.

READ: Qatar needs to construct bridges between US and Iran

Abu Dhabi was much less involved in regards to the Houthis’ presence previous to the most recent escalation and was even keen to tolerate the group ought to it keep away from southern Yemen. It even noticed the political get together Al-Islah, which is aligned with the Hadi authorities, as a larger menace. The UAE considers the organisation to be a regional offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which it has tried to fight by supporting reactionary “anti-Islamist” political actors.

UAE and Saudis are again collectively

Just lately, nonetheless, the renewed menace from the Houthis has introduced it as a mutual enemy, thus forcing the UAE and Saudi Arabia to disregard their variations, a minimum of in the interim. In spite of everything, the UAE-backed Huge Giants, a militia group that’s allied to the STC, has joined the federal government in combating the group. On 25 January, the militia introduced it had taken management of Harib, Marib’s second-largest district, from the Houthis.^[3] And on 30 January, Hadi loyalists and the Giants Brigades had recaptured extra districts throughout the essential governorate, thus placing the Houthis on the again foot.

In spite of everything, the UAE supported the STC’s bid to take over Shabwa, given its strategic location and abundance of pure sources, and the Houthis have posed a menace to Abu Dhabi and the STC’s ambitions since they set their sights on the Shabwa governorate. And, provided that the Houthis have additionally been repelled from Shabwa whereas the coalition retains making features in Marib, the insurgent faction is evidently being pressured onto the again foot.

READ: US condemns Houthi missile assault on Abu Dhabi

In response, the Houthis have escalated the battle with the UAE, together with seizing an Emirati cargo ship, which it claimed had weapons on 3 January. Because the Houthis have additional taken the battle to the UAE, the battle might additional escalate, and the UAE will take a extra proactive position within the battle in opposition to the Houthis to make sure it could possibly defend its hegemonic ambitions in Yemen’s south.

New dynamics emerge within the battle

The conflict might, due to this fact, dampen de-escalation efforts between Iran and the UAE, which have been ongoing since 2020, notably since Tehran has elevated its backing of the Houthis.^[4] Israel expressed its assist for Abu Dhabi following the Houthi-claimed drone assault on Abu Dhabi, whereas Tel Aviv additionally provided safety and intelligence assist to Abu Dhabi following the primary Houthi assault in January.^[5] And when Israeli President, Isaac Herzog, visited Abu Dhabi on 30 January, the primary go to of an Israeli President to the UAE in historical past, Emirati authorities said they intercepted a 3rd Houthi missile strike which coincided with Herzog’s go to.^[6]

It’s possible that Israel and the UAE will proceed to tighten their regional alliance, consequently. And, as for Saudi Arabia and Iran, their meek efforts to revive their decades-long rivalry might face additional challenges, notably because the Houthis pose additional safety threats to Riyadh and Yemen.

Thus, the battle is actually witnessing new dynamics. Though the Hadi authorities and STC have unified in opposition to the Houthis, each actors would possible be unwilling to place apart their battle for management over southern Yemen sooner or later. With out stable worldwide motion, the battle might unravel additional and go away scars on many Yemenis, generations to come back.

(Supply of this text: Anadolu Information Company)

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-says-suspects-drones-behind-abu-dhabi-fires-yemens-houthis-claim-attack-2022-01-17/

[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/information/2022/1/21/several-killed-in-airstrike-on-yemen-prison

[3] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/01/yemeni-government-forces-make-new-gains-marib

[4] https://www.csis.org/evaluation/iranian-and-houthi-war-against-saudi-arabia

[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-offers-uae-security-intelligence-support-after-deadly-houthi-attack-2022-01-18/

[6] https://apnews.com/article/travel-dubai-united-arab-emirates-air-travel-yemen-1e103b0a537aa69eab242ddc9db41799

The views expressed on this article belong to the writer and don’t essentially replicate the editorial coverage of Center East Monitor.