Biden to designate Qatar major non-Nato ally, as Washington looks for help on energy security

President Joe Biden stated on Monday that he plans to designate Qatar a serious non-Nato ally, underscoring the important position the US has come to see the Gulf state enjoying as Washington appears for assist addressing challenges starting from Afghanistan to a possible shortfall in Europe’s gasoline provides, ought to Russia invade Ukraine.

“The transfer to designate Qatar as a serious non-Nato ally signifies a lot nearer cooperation and recognition of deepening ties between Doha and Washington,” Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Center East at Rice College’s Baker Institute for Public Coverage, instructed Center East Eye

The Qatari chief arrives in Washington after his nation’s profile has risen, following the important thing position it performed in evacuating US residents, allies and hundreds of Afghans in the course of the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan final yr. It has since gone on to develop into the US diplomatic consultant within the Taliban-ruled nation. 

Now the tiny Gulf kingdom of three million, which is likely one of the world’s prime producers of liquefied pure gasoline (LNG), finds itself positioned to play one other position on the worldwide stage.

‘The Qataris perceive the gasoline market very nicely’

– Nikos Tsafos, Centre for Strategic and Worldwide Research

Western officers are involved that Russia, which usually offers 40 p.c of Europe’s pure gasoline, could constrict provides within the occasion it invades Ukraine, delivering a extreme blow to European companies and households on the peak of winter.

A senior US administration official stated on Sunday that Biden would seek the advice of along with his Qatari counterpart on “making certain the steadiness of worldwide power provides”, and that conversations concerning LNG would “determine within the combine” of Monday’s go to.

“Actually throughout the spectrum, the Qataris wish to showcase that they behave in ways in which strengthen US pursuits,” Ulrichsen added. 

‘Any molecule issues’

Observers have been eager to notice how Tamim’s go to to the White Home marks a reversal of fortunes for his nation, following the tip of an almost 43-month blockade in opposition to Qatar by its Arab neighbours.

However Tamim’s arrival additionally speaks to the challenges the administration has confronted. Biden entered workplace promising to stem the rise of China and enact the Inexperienced New Deal. Now in his first assembly with a Gulf chief since taking workplace, he’s confronting the age-old problem of power safety within the Center East.

“It’s realpolitik,” Karen Dourian, a contributing editor with the Center East Financial Survey (MEES), instructed MEE. “The scenario has modified to the extent that Biden has even needed to name on Opec to supply extra oil.”

“It is the truth of life that renewable power, at the same time as you diversify and accommodate renewable fuels, shouldn’t be dependable to supply 24-hour electrical energy”.

‘The Qataris are nicely positioned to satisfy Europe’s demand in the event that they do diversify from Russia’

– Karen Dourian, Center East Financial Survey

Qatar has warned that its potential to extend provide to Europe is restricted by its commitments to long-term contracts, principally with Asian nations. “We’re maxed out,” Saad al-Kaabi, minister of state for power affairs, stated even earlier than the disaster in Ukraine erupted.

Analysts say one benefit is that the nation’s gasoline exports to Asia are inclined to peak in January, which might make the re-routing of some provides attainable. “At this level, any molecule issues,” Nikos Tsafos, an power specialist on the Centre for Strategic and Worldwide Research (CSIS), instructed MEE.

Whereas Europe would possibly catch a reprieve from the extra provide, Tsafos says that in a severe disaster the continent is probably going going to wish way more than Qatar can supply.

He provides that for Qatar, the second-largest producer of LNG after the US, enterprise calculations will proceed to issue into the combo. “The Qataris perceive the gasoline market very nicely, so I see the diplomatic overtures from the USA as a lubricant slightly than a driver.”

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The principle consumers of Qatar’s LNG are Japan, South Korea and India, all distinguished US allies within the area which have locked in gasoline with long-term contracts.

Robert Mogielnicki, a senior resident scholar on the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, stated the strain from international provide constraints means Qatar doesn’t have the power to “single-handedly alleviate” the power crunch.

“Any efforts to help worst-case state of affairs power wants of European nations would rely on collaboration with Asian companions.”

‘Properly-placed Qataris’

The deal with power safety comes at a fortuitous time for Qatar, because it pushes forward with plans to broaden its North Discipline, the world’s largest liquefied pure gasoline mission.

The growth will price roughly $30bn and goals to spice up the nation’s LNG output by 40 p.c a yr by 2026. “Pure gasoline demand goes to rise, even with the power transition,” Dourian stated.

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“The Qataris are well-placed to satisfy Europe’s demand in the event that they do diversify from Russia. They’ve the tanker fleet, manufacturing prices are low, and they’re making investments to extend capability”.

It stays to be seen, nonetheless, if the disaster in Ukraine shall be sufficient to shift Europe’s dependence on Russia.

The Trump administration had lengthy pushed Germany, the continent’s industrial powerhouse and largest LNG shopper, to construct an import facility that may enable shipments of gasoline from the US and Qatar. These plans have been delayed and withered with the arrival of the Biden administration.

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Environmental issues prompted the French authorities to ask energy group Engie in October 2020 to carry off on signing a multibillion-dollar deal for US liquefied pure gasoline over issues concerning the deal’s environmental affect.

Requested whether or not he noticed the present disaster with Russia resulting in a long-term shift within the European nations’ power insurance policies, Tsafos from CSIS, was sceptical.

He additionally questioned whether or not the Biden administration would look to advertise Qatari gasoline in Europe over the long run. “I’m not positive this administration would push for particular measures like asking Europe to signal LNG contracts or construct new LNG infrastructure.”

Will Qatar get its drones?

Whereas Qatar has drawn criticism for its international coverage from some in Washington, tensions have cooled just lately following the rapprochement between Doha and its Gulf neighbours.

Qatar has additionally been seen as a possible companion for the US in coping with Iran, which the US and European powers are locked in negotiations with over a return to the 2015 nuclear deal.

The nation’s International Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani arrived in Washington late final week, following a collection of conferences in Tehran with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and International Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

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Qatar can be the situation of the huge Al Udeid base, dwelling to round 10,000 US troops and the headquarters of the American Mixed Air Operations Middle.

The announcement by Biden on designating Qatar a serious non-Nato ally locations the nation within the ranks of Bahrain and Kuwait as one of many few Gulf states with the title, giving Qatar preferential entry to US army tools and expertise, free surplus materials, and prioritised cooperation on coaching.

The transfer might assist Doha in its efforts to safe the acquisition of armed drones from the US. The federal government of Qatar has been ready for a response from the US on a request it made greater than a yr in the past to purchase 4 armed MQ-9B Predator drones as a part of an estimated $600m deal to spice up their defensive capabilities.

The sale has confronted some resistance in Washington, with these involved saying it might upset the steadiness of energy with different regional allies just like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. 

In a letter despatched to Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken final yr, Republican Congressmen Jack Bergman and Randy Weber additionally raised issues over Qatar’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas as a cause to query the sale.

“We now have severe issues about Qatar’s want for such drones within the gentle of their horrible human rights data, international coverage and nationwide safety issues,” the letter said.