Italy’s embattled Berlusconi eyes the presidency, his biggest prize yet

Silvio Berlusconi, the three-time former Italian prime minister, has been convicted of tax fraud, is presently dealing with costs in a number of courtroom circumstances and has stood trial greater than 70 occasions, together with for bribing politicians.

Now the 85-year-old desires to be Italy’s subsequent president.

Mr. Berlusconi’s political energy has light lately as a wave of youthful antiestablishment and populist leaders swept by means of Italy. His Forza Italia occasion is polling properly under 10%. He continues to be dogged by judicial issues and has struggled with well being issues, together with a severe bout of Covid-19.

However Mr. Berlusconi has made the political comeback an artwork kind and now he’s making an attempt to tug off one which on first blush seems to be not possible for probably the most polarizing figures in trendy Italian politics. He has defied the political odds over time, and Italy’s system for voting for president—a secret poll amongst greater than 1,000 parliamentarians and regional politicians—has led to large surprises prior to now.

In 1992, Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, who bought six votes within the first spherical and by no means greater than 30 votes within the first 15 rounds, emerged as a compromise candidate and acquired virtually 700 votes within the sixteenth spherical.

“I’m skeptical Berlusconi can pull this off, however it is vitally troublesome to guess with him as a result of he defies all predictions,” mentioned Daniele Albertazzi, a politics professor on the College of Surrey within the U.Okay. who focuses on right-wing populism in Europe and Italian politics.

To mount a profitable run for a seven-year time period as president, Mr. Berlusconi should guarantee no person is elected within the first three rounds of voting when candidates are chosen by two-thirds of eligible electors. For Mr. Berlusconi, an early-round victory is extremely unlikely as a result of it could require the help of a big slice of center-left politicians who’ve vowed to oppose him.

Mario Draghi, Italy’s prime minister, is the one individual pundits consider is perhaps elected within the first three rounds. In lower than a yr in workplace, the previous president of the European Central Financial institution has set lengthy overdue reforms in movement, a few of that are needed for Italy to obtain the just about 200 billion euros, equal to round $227 billion, in European Union funds earmarked to assist the nation bounce again from the pandemic.

Although Mr. Draghi instructions a big parliamentary majority, it isn’t clear he would get pleasure from the identical help within the vote for the presidency.

Final month, Mr. Draghi mentioned the federal government might proceed with out him as prime minister and that he’s “a grandfather on the service of the establishments,” which was extensively interpreted as a declaration of curiosity in turning into president. Historically, presidential hopefuls don’t brazenly declare that they search the workplace. Mr. Draghi declined to remark.

From the fourth spherical, a easy majority suffices to elect a brand new president, opening a attainable path for Mr. Berlusconi, whereas additionally easing the highway for Mr. Draghi if he hasn’t already received the vote. If Mr. Berlusconi convinces all of the electors aligned with Forza Italia and the opposite center-right events to decide on him, he would nonetheless have to rustle up about 50 votes and keep away from center-right defections.

Mr. Berlusconi, by means of a consultant, declined to remark.

When Mr. Berlusconi entered politics in 1994, he was already well-known to Italians because the proprietor of soccer staff AC Milan. He has since bought the staff, however the perpetually tanned magnate’s numerous enterprise holdings nonetheless embrace Italy’s three foremost commercial-television networks. That has opened him as much as accusations that he had a battle of curiosity that made him unfit for workplace, one thing he has at all times disregarded.

“Having all these media property within the household whereas he was prime minister was already troublesome on many ranges, however for the president to have these pursuits can be past the restrict of acceptability,” mentioned Paolo Natale, a professor of politics on the College of Milan.

Whereas Mr. Berlusconi’s allies have mentioned he’s their candidate if he desires the presidency, the key vote makes it simple for electors to defy occasion orders.

The leaders of the 2 largest center-right events—Brothers of Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and the League’s Matteo Salvini—have mentioned that they’d help Mr. Berlusconi. Nonetheless, there are tensions among the many three events that might lead some members of Brothers of Italy or the League to not vote for the previous premier.

Brothers of Italy has advanced right into a nativist far-right occasion targeted on immigration and cultural id, nevertheless it traces its roots to a neo-fascist motion born within the wake of World Battle II. The League has flirted with anti-EU insurance policies that spooked monetary markets and political leaders on the continent.

A spokesman for the League affirmed Mr. Salvini’s help for Mr. Berlusconi if the previous premier decides to run for the presidency. A spokeswoman for Ms. Meloni declined to remark.

The president has a largely ceremonial position within the Italian political system, however can generally wield actual energy. The president picks the prime minister—who should then cobble collectively a parliamentary majority—and might block ministers from being appointed.

The outgoing president, Sergio Mattarella, performed a pivotal position a number of occasions lately, together with in 2018, on the peak of Italy’s populist wave, when he blocked the appointment of an economic system minister who had prompt Italy ought to ditch the euro as its forex.

Mr. Berlusconi met with Ms. Meloni, Mr. Salvini and different center-right leaders final month at his not too long ago acquired villa on the Appian Means on the outskirts of Rome to rally help. The previous prime minister desires to make a run on the presidency, however will solely resolve in mid-January whether or not he’ll push his candidacy, in response to an adviser. The primary spherical of voting is predicted round Jan. 24.

Italy is setting Covid-19 an infection data virtually each day and the pandemic might doubtlessly make Mr. Berlusconi’s path to victory more durable as a result of all voters should be current in parliament, that means electors in quarantine received’t be allowed to vote. The quorum wanted to win stays the identical.

It will be unprecedented to have a president with Mr. Berlusconi’s authorized baggage. Amongst his many circumstances, a courtroom convicted him of bribing a senator with €3 million to modify political alliances. The senator admitted to the scheme. Due to Italy’s gradual judicial system and stalling techniques employed by Mr. Berlusconi’s attorneys, the statute of limitations expired earlier than the enchantment course of ran its course, ensuing within the conviction’s cancellation.

“Nonetheless the race for the presidency goes, this received’t be the political finish of Berlusconi,” mentioned Prof. Albertazzi. “The top will come when Berlusconi is underground.”

This story has been revealed from a wire company feed with out modifications to the textual content