Kingmaker posse or splitting Muslim votes? What Asaduddin Owaisi really stands to gain in UP elections

AIMIM is commonly “termed” as BJP’s B-team, whereas nobody can ever estimate and are available nearer to “behind the scenes” politics in politics, however numbers do not ever lie.

By Adarsh Sharma

With ambitions of securing some political floor in Uttar Pradesh, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has declared that it’ll contest 100 seats within the upcoming 2022 UP elections. With the likes of BSP, SP and AAP denying any chance of a pre-poll alliance with AIMIM, their possibilities of grabbing the UP Rajbhog lie allied with Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Social gathering (BSBY) and the Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha, an amalgamation of 9 small regional events.

Even when we have been to imagine, hypothetically, that AIMIM will safe and win all of the 100 seats which it intends to contest within the upcoming polls, will or not it’s ready to kind the federal government within the 403-member UP legislative meeting? So, what does it stand to realize? Is Owaisi merely eyeing the kingmaker posse? Or is he purposely attempting to dissect UP’s 20% Muslim voter base?

Pattern the AIMIM’s earlier performances – the celebration had misplaced all of the 38 seats it had contested within the 2017 meeting elections. With solely a 0.2% vote share, nearly all its candidates had did not safe their election deposits in 2017. So, what precisely is working by way of Owaisi’s thoughts? Is he thus not not directly serving to the BJP by dissecting the Muslim voter base? That he’s not trying to kind a majority authorities in UP is evident from his techniques of contesting solely the 100 odd seats. He has neither confirmed going right into a pre-poll alliance with some other regional celebration nor has he proven any intentions of doing the identical. So, is he solely attempting to eat into the Muslim vote share, which in any other case has been a conventional BSP/SP (Bahujan Samaj Social gathering/Samajwadi Social gathering) help base? Is he then not additional amplifying his vote katua picture and doing extra hurt than good to the general opposition faction?

The opposition, as it’s, stands divided in UP and with AAP eyeing to contest from all 403 seats, the division of votes (majorly Muslim vote base) is just going to help BJP’s election marketing campaign technique. The one strategy to pose a “severe” risk to BJP’s plans in UP is to curb and, if doable, curtail this cut up and devise a method to as an alternative eat into its savarn vote share. Going by the official statements of all of the regional and nationwide events, this seems to be extremely unlikely, although. Congress has already denied any chance of an alliance with SP in these elections and vice versa. BSP hasn’t proven any inclination in direction of the identical both. And with Arvind Kejriwal and Owaisi attempting to determine their credentials in UP, the coalition clout and cloud will get even murkier.

Given the permutations and 0 chance of any mixtures, it’s not exhausting to decipher the doable outcomes of the upcoming elections. With Owaisi brazenly declaring SP as its principal competitor and trying to make inroads into its Muslim vote financial institution and BSP all set to revive its Dalit voter base, this cut up will do extra good than hurt to BJP’s equation.

ADVERTISEMENT

AIMIM is commonly “termed” as BJP’s B-team, whereas nobody can ever estimate and are available nearer to “behind the scenes” politics in politics, however numbers don’t ever lie. Let’s check out the 2017 figures, for example.

In 2017, AIMIM had contested 38 seats and misplaced its deposit on 34 however on the remaining 4 seats, it jeopardized SP’s calculations completely, which ultimately helped BJP achieve these seats.

Kanth in Moradabad, the hotbed of communal polarization, submit the temple loudspeaker row, went to BJP by a victory margin of simply 2,348 votes, with AIMIM getting roughly 23000 votes right here.

In Tanda in Ambedkar Nagar, BJP’s victory margin was once more simply 1,725 votes whereas the AIMIM received roughly 2,000 votes.

Gainsari in Balrampur district, BJP right here was victorious by solely 2,300 votes, with 3,160 votes going into AIMIM’s kitty.

And due to the AIMIM’s candidate in Shravasti, BJP received this seat by a margin of simply 445 votes with roughly 2900 votes going into AIMIM’s favour!

That was 2017, solely 38 seats and now that the AIMIM chieftain is trying to rating a century, issues look fairly good and sorted for the BJP! The skipper it appears is healthier ready and so is his crew. His fan following amongst the Muslim youth (because of his aggressive oratory expertise) has solely gone up since 2017. And if he manages to get into the double figures, the BJP is actually going to applaud his expertise from the stands! Quite the opposite, the Muslim voter base may simply perceive the nuances of the upcoming T-22 recreation in time and cheer for SP. And on this, the position of the media can’t be ignored both, which until then will proceed to make them conscious of the counterproductive results of voting for AIMIM (take this text, for example!)

However is the deviation or division of the Muslim voter base going to be sufficient for the BJP to repeat its 2017 efficiency? Are the Muslims and Yadavs going to be the one deciding issue? Is it going to be a cakewalk for the BJP and its Hindutva poster boy Yogi Adityanath to retain their Higher Caste and Non-Yadav OBC voter base? Is UP going to jot down off corona’s second wave persecution fully within the title of Ram Mandir? Will Hindu and Hindutva narratives supersede each and all different points?

Amidst a plethora of potentialities, there isn’t a denying the truth that the BJP is banking closely on Yogi and its Hindutva narrative. In doing so, they could simply assist Owaisi in underlining his narrative of “minority abomination” inside his followers and past. Which, in flip, will once more show to be helpful and assist AIMIM seize some votes? Which, in flip, will solely assist BJP? An ideal instance of chit-bhi-meri-pat-bhi-meri in a quandary!

That Ram Mandir and the opposite problems with Hindu curiosity are going to rule the election campaigns and speeches is fairly evident already. The one hindrance or risk to the general BJP plans although may simply be the anticipated (God forbid!) third wave proper earlier than the elections. Within the absence of a powerful and united opposition, the possibilities of them retaining UP, look good in any other case.

From Prashant Kishor to Sharad Yadav, everybody is aware of and understands the dynamics concerned and the necessity for a cohesive opposition however nobody most likely has been capable of finding a solution to the million-dollar query but, viz., “kaun banega mukhyamantri”! They perceive politics a lot better than any of us however the issue of too many cooks spoils any possibilities of an ideal recipe each time. When everyone seems to be eyeing the kingmaker posse, the potential of a post-poll alliance may not come up in any respect. Supporting one another in case of a hung verdict might not go the gap or yield the specified outcomes for the state and its voters. The Vikas continues to be an novice child and too many mother and father may simply hinder his general improvement and progress.

All of the non-BJP political events ought to subsequently begin counting their chickens earlier than they hatch and AIM for a constructive election marketing campaign earlier than it’s too late!

(The creator is an promoting and advertising and marketing skilled with over 15+ years of expertise in providing personalized media options to manufacturers and political events. Views expressed are private and don’t replicate the official place or coverage of Monetary Specific On-line.)