After Afghanistan: What’s next for Pakistan and the US?

The evacuation disaster precipitated by the Taliban’s swift takeover of Afghanistan following the fast withdrawal of American troops might additional widen the divide between Pakistan and the USA. The Aug. 26 terror assault at Kabul airport claimed by Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), ISIS’s native affiliate, is a transparent manifestation of Washington’s epic defeat within the two-decade-long “struggle on terror” and an indication that President Joe Biden is dropping his grip on the Afghan narrative.

Biden’s Afghanistan coverage is a complicated shambles. Whereas it’s too early to totally grasp the long-term overseas coverage implications of this self-inflicted disaster, it threatens to undermine his home agenda, and many of the blame must be put at Pakistan’s doorstep. The terrible scenes at Kabul airport solely exacerbated the evacuation disaster, jeopardizing Pakistan’s efforts to enter the Biden administration’s good books.

It’s apparent that 20 years of violent battle in Afghanistan have bled the U.S. way over it might deal with. Now the Biden administration is dealing with criticism, and rightly so, for its shockingly mismanaged retreat from Afghanistan. Nevertheless, it’s Pakistan that’s largely answerable for lots of Washington present predicaments within the nation, and one of many fundamental causes U.S. energy and status have been so badly broken in Afghanistan is as a result of the Taliban discovered unassailable sanctuaries in Pakistan.

Strategic prudence calls for that now that American troops have accomplished their exit, the Biden administration ought to maintain Pakistan accountable for its incapacity to ship what its generals and diplomats repeatedly promised: politically negotiated peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s safety institution is probably conscious of this looming hazard, and that’s the reason Nationwide Safety Adviser Moeed Yusuf has requested Washington to not deal with Pakistan as a “scapegoat,” underlining their shared curiosity in Afghanistan. Yusuf asserted that he was “not asking for any sympathy for Pakistan,” however speaking “by way of pure U.S. egocentric nationwide pursuits.” Islamabad fears being caught between an embittered Washington and an emboldened Taliban.

Whether or not the Taliban has essentially modified is an open query. However, the core proposition on which Washington’s Afghan exit technique has rested — that it might meet the strategic problem from a place of power — was naïve. It’s clear that when the Trump administration despatched its particular envoy to take a seat throughout the negotiating desk from the Taliban and eventually signed the peace settlement in February 2020, the struggle was already misplaced. The embarrassing deal was projected as the one means to make sure intra-Afghan negotiations between the Taliban and the U.S.-backed Kabul regime, however it ended up legitimizing the previous with out securing any concessions.

Pakistan claims to have performed an important position in persuading the Taliban to speak peace. Nevertheless, it’s nonetheless ready to be rewarded — symbolically and materially — for this. A couple of days earlier than the seize of Kabul, Yusuf vented his frustration over Biden’s reluctance to speak to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, boasting that Islamabad has “choices” if the U.S. believes {that a} Biden-Khan cellphone name is a “concession.” However Biden’s chilly shoulder to Islamabad is a results of probably the most stunning lack of American face in current historical past; no matter progress Afghanistan had achieved over the previous 20 years is now being reversed by the Taliban. The absence of any interval between an American withdrawal and the collapse of Kabul solely confirms the widely-held notion that the Taliban have been merely pretending to speak peace in Doha, a reality of which Pakistani intelligence was absolutely conscious.

Pakistan’s official stance has been that it most popular a politically negotiated final result in Afghanistan, however no person believes this. Khan might have additional infuriated the U.S. by declaring that Afghanistan has “damaged the shackles of slavery.” Does the present scenario actually appear to be liberation? Had been that the case, Afghans could be celebrating, not desperately attempting to get out of their nation. What Khan’s schadenfreude primarily means is that America has been pressured to give up earlier than Pakistan’s safety institution.

Pakistan’s future position

Regardless of Washington’s obvious displeasure over Pakistan’s failure to persuade the Taliban to peacefully negotiate the phrases of the longer term Afghan authorities, the Biden administration most likely believes that Pakistan will proceed to play a essential position in a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan. And plenty of perceived humiliations and setbacks over time however, Pakistan’s ruling elite nonetheless values its relationship with the U.S. Within the speedy aftermath of the American withdrawal, Pakistan is attempting laborious to reassert its worth to the U.S. However Biden has nonetheless not discovered time to speak to Khan greater than seven months after taking workplace, and Pakistan’s prime minister doesn’t appear amused.

Given the present geopolitical state of affairs, it’s not too obscure what “choices” Yusuf was referring to. For sure, China has emerged as Pakistan’s primary choice in recent times. Pakistan has additionally tried to attract nearer to Turkey, supporting the latter’s ambition of assuming the management of the Islamic world. Pakistan has taken steps to strengthen its ties with each Russia and Iran as nicely. Nevertheless, these relationships don’t appear resilient sufficient for Pakistan to forge a secure regional safety order as a result of Afghanistan’s stability underneath the Taliban stays extremely questionable. As Pervez Hoodbhoy, Pakistan’s famous scholar, rightly factors out, “Whereas the Chinese language are mentioned to be able to consuming every part that strikes, they can not abdomen an unreformed Taliban; this might create hellish indigestion inside Xinjiang. Former Taliban allies, Saudi Arabia and UAE, are cautious of Taliban radicalism spilling over and wrecking makes an attempt to liberalise their international locations.” Famend Indian journalist Shekhar Gupta perceptively remarks, “Anyone who thinks the Taliban, underneath the tutelage of the Pakistanis, will be capable of safe a nation-state as amorphous as this in opposition to extremely indoctrinated teams, is erring gravely.” These many contradictions will finally develop into too massive and complicated to be managed in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

Biden stays unconcerned about hurting Khan’s ego, and this most likely makes Pakistan’s safety institution considerably stressed. Khan not too long ago obtained a cellphone name from Russian President Vladimir Putin during which they mentioned the scenario in Afghanistan. Although Pakistan’s ties with Russia are on an upward trajectory, Islamabad is conscious of the symbolic significance of a cellphone name from Biden, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s many calls along with his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, and the Putin-Khan dialog aren’t any substitute.

Whereas President Donald Trump publicly expressed his frustrations over Pakistan’s double dealing in Afghanistan earlier than making a U-turn, Biden has remained largely silent on the difficulty. However this silence can’t be interpreted as a willingness to forgive Pakistan. Will Biden neglect that Islamabad exploited American dependence on floor traces of communication by means of Pakistan? One can also’t rule out the cynical calculation behind Biden’s motive to withdraw from Afghanistan: Pakistan would endure the implications of the chaos and vacuum left behind.

Shahid Javed Burki, Pakistan’s former finance minister and a famous columnist, recalled a dialog he had with Gen. Zia ul-Haq in July 1988, weeks earlier than Haq died in a aircraft crash. Explaining why he dismissed Prime Minister Mohammed Khan Junejo, Burki stories Haq informed him, “I took that motion as a result of I didn’t approve of his Afghan coverage. He had concluded the ‘Geneva Accord’ which had the Soviet Union withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. I opposed such a transfer since it could depart a political vacuum in Kabul which might be troublesome to fill by the mujahedeen teams who had fought the Soviet Union. I foresee a civil struggle.” The withdrawal of the Soviet troops finally led to a civil struggle in Afghanistan. Whereas Pakistan had little direct hand within the creation of the Taliban, its choice to climb on the bandwagon was borne out of the necessity to include the infighting among the many mujahedeen. Because the Biden administration pushed the exit button, many senior Pakistani officers criticized the U.S. for its hasty withdrawal.

Concern in Islamabad

Hopefully, America’s “ceaselessly struggle” has ended. Pakistanis at the moment are changing into more and more conscious of the political vacuum in Kabul. Islamabad appears determined to make it possible for the Taliban’s actions mustn’t give the worldwide neighborhood, significantly the U.S., any cause to isolate them diplomatically and cripple them financially. In keeping with scholar Ayesha Siddiqa, Pakistan’s Military chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, not too long ago spoke to a personal gathering of retired generals, journalists, and diplomats about his concern that Pakistan might find yourself being focused by American sanctions. The frenzy amongst Pakistani officers to provide the Taliban a certificates of fine habits and paint a doomsday state of affairs of what may occur ought to worldwide engagement with Pakistan and Afghanistan not proceed says much less concerning the Taliban’s remodeled character and extra about Islamabad’s desperation to whitewash the “navy resolution” the Taliban imposed.

Regardless of Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan desirous to play a job within the new nice recreation in Afghanistan, the U.S. stays probably the most consequential and decisive actor. And continued instability in Afghanistan is the worst-case state of affairs for Pakistan. Furthermore, it’s changing into clear that Pakistan won’t be able to separate itself from what occurs in Afghanistan. It will be silly to consider that the American intelligence neighborhood shouldn’t be conscious that ISKP was based by representatives of ISIS, however has drawn its preventing power from disaffected Taliban commanders and different Sunni sectarian teams as soon as nurtured and later marginalized by Pakistan. Antonio Giustozzi believes that ISKP maintains some sort of relationship with Pakistan’s intelligence providers. A U.N. Safety Council report from 2020 has drawn consideration to tactical coordination between ISKP and the Haqqani Community, which has been an integral a part of the Afghan Taliban and was termed a “veritable arm of Pakistan’s ISI” by former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers Adm. Mike Mullen in 2011. Whether or not Pakistan likes it or not, the fact is that the world views an unstable Afghanistan as an final result of Pakistan’s double recreation. How Pakistan will deal with these diplomatic complexities, whereas additionally making an attempt to reset ties with Washington, stays to be seen. The proper final result for Pakistan could be to see the Taliban compromising with different political actors and stakeholders in Afghanistan.

A risk-averse Biden doesn’t appear ready to undertake any main navy measures to reverse the setbacks in Afghanistan, together with the tragic loss of life of its 13 troopers. A drone strike or two in opposition to ISKP leaders is irrelevant with out concentrating on the fear community created by Rawalpindi. If Washington is anticipating Islamabad to affect the Taliban’s state insurance policies and supply counterterrorism cooperation going ahead, such expectations are sorely misguided as a result of Pakistan’s safety institution has escaped duty for instrumentalizing terrorism underneath a nuclear umbrella for much too lengthy.

Pakistan not solely duped the superpower for nearly 20 years by enjoying a double recreation, however it has been instrumental in orchestrating the rollback of civil liberties and ladies’s rights in Afghanistan. Washington’s failure to penalize Pakistan would additional diminish America’s place as a worldwide energy whereas damaging its credibility amongst allies. If the U.S. is eager to retain a semblance of credibility on the world stage, there must be a bipartisan consensus in Washington to behave in opposition to Pakistan. Now that the evacuation is full and overseas troops have left Afghanistan, the actual take a look at for Pakistan begins. If the Biden administration makes up its thoughts to tackle Pakistan for its deceitful habits in sustaining the insurgency in Afghanistan, then Pakistan have to be prepared for unpredictable phrases of engagement with Washington.

Vinay Kaura, PhD, is a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI’s Afghanistan & Pakistan Program, an Assistant Professor within the Division of Worldwide Affairs and Safety Research on the Sardar Patel College of Police, Safety, and Felony Justice in Rajasthan, India, and the Deputy Director on the Middle for Peace and Battle Research. The views expressed on this piece are his personal.

Picture by AAMIR QURESHI/AFP by way of Getty Photos