Taliban takeover energizes, galvanizes radical Islam around world, analysts say

BEIRUT (AP) — Just a few days after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, a convoy of militants drove by way of town of Idlib in northwestern Syria in vehicles bearing the group’s white-and-black flags, honking horns and firing their weapons within the air.

The celebrations by an al-Qaeda affiliate in a distant nook of war-torn Syria had been an expression of the triumph felt by radical Islamic teams from the Gaza Strip to Pakistan and West Africa who see America’s violence-marred exit from Afghanistan a chance to reassert their presence.

For such teams, the chaotic US departure following the collapse of safety forces it had skilled for 20 years is a present, underlining their message that Washington finally abandons its allies, and that defeating highly effective armies is feasible with sufficient persistence.

“The success of the Taliban opens the way in which for radical teams to step up their recruitment operations globally. It’s a lot simpler for them now, and there may be extra receptivity,” stated Hassan Abu Haniyeh, an professional on Islamic militants based mostly in Amman, Jordan.

Regardless of the billions of {dollars} spent by the US and NATO over almost 20 years to construct up Afghan safety forces, the Taliban seized almost all of Afghanistan in simply over every week amid the US troop pullout. The fundamentalist group swept into Kabul on August 15 after the federal government collapsed and embattled President Ashraf Ghani fled the nation.

Since then, tens of hundreds of individuals determined to flee a rustic ruled by the Taliban have been attempting to flee or have already got been evacuated in a mammoth Western airlift.

Members of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Islamist militant group, wave the Taliban flags as they have a good time the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, within the metropolis of Idlib, Friday, Aug. 20, 2021 (AP Picture/Ghaith Alsayed)

“The occasions unfolding in Afghanistan have given jihadi teams and US adversaries purpose to have a good time, and America’s allies within the area purpose to really feel anxious,” stated Abu Haniyeh. “They now really feel that America would possibly drop them at some point, identical because it did the federal government of Ashraf Ghani.”

There are issues that Afghanistan will as soon as once more develop into a base for militants to plot towards the West, very similar to the Sept. 11, 2001, assaults that triggered the US. invasion.

“That is the story that’s going to affect and affect jihadi fighters across the globe for the following decade, the identical method because the victory over the Soviets in Afghanistan within the ’80s impressed the jihadis world wide throughout the entire Nineties and even afterwards,” stated Elie Tenenbaum, director of safety research heart on the French Institute of Worldwide Relations.

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In a twist, the Taliban victory additionally boosted the fortunes of their rivals in Afghanistan — a neighborhood department of the Islamic State community. On Thursday, the affiliate claimed accountability for the suicide assault that killed scores of individuals outdoors Kabul’s airport, together with 13 US service members.

Taliban fighters journey on a automobile mounted with the Taliban flag within the Karte Mamorin space of Kabul metropolis, Kabul on 22 August 2021. (Picture by Hoshang Hashimi / AFP)

The Taliban now should deal with an emboldened IS, which is difficult their rule with militants which can be much more radical. The group’s ranks have been bolstered after the Taliban freed prisoners throughout an advance by way of Afghanistan.

An editorial within the Islamic State group’s publication final week derided the Taliban, accusing them of collaborating with the US.

“America truly did it. They lastly raised a ‘Mullah Bradley,’” the editorial stated, utilizing a reputation it has coined for the Taliban in an obvious reference to the US combating automobile. The group additionally promised a brand new section in its “blessed jihad” towards the West.

Analysts say the Taliban’s success and the US withdrawal galvanizes and offers a motivational increase to America’s adversaries and jihadi teams world wide.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, stated in a speech Friday that what’s unfolding in Afghanistan “is a portrayal of America’s full defeat and the US demise and failure within the area.”

Illustrative: Hezbollah and Amal supporters wave Hezbollah and Iranian flags as they shout slogans towards Israel and U.S. throughout a protest within the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, June 28, 2020. (AP Picture/Hassan Ammar)

In northern Syria, a press release by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the al-Qaeda affiliate there, stated the Taliban victory proved no occupation can final ceaselessly. The chief of Hamas, which guidelines the Gaza Strip, congratulated the Taliban’s chief on the “demise of the US occupation.”

In Pakistan, the chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad, Mohammad Azhur, used the group’s publication to cheer the Taliban victory, saying it should encourage mujahedeen, or holy warriors, “the world over to proceed their battle for Islam.” The group’s fighters took credit score for a 2019 assault within the disputed Kashmir area that killed 40 Indian troopers and introduced the nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of struggle.

Amir Rana, govt director of the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute of Peace Research, stated the occasions in Afghanistan may encourage hard-line Sunni teams who’re waging sectarian battles towards Shiites. The anti-Shiite teams Lashkar-e-Janghvi and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan have championed the Taliban victory, elevating fears they might restart their lethal actions.

US troopers stand guard on the Kabul airport on August 16, 2021. (Wakil Kohsar / AFP)

Heni Nsaibia, a senior Sahel researcher on the Armed Battle Location & Occasion Knowledge Undertaking, stated the Taliban takeover can be a motivational increase for extremists in West Africa, exhibiting that persistence and perseverance can repay.

The largest hazard, in line with the analysts, is in unstable international locations with a weak central authorities and a historical past of insurgencies, corresponding to Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya.

There are echoes of 2014, when the Islamic State group sprang from the chaos of conflicts in Iraq and Syria, seized a large stretch of territory straddling each international locations, and declared a “caliphate” after US-trained Iraqi forces collapsed. Terrorist assaults in Europe and past adopted earlier than IS was defeated in 2017, however makes an attempt to regroup have been seen previously two years, with new assaults in Iraq and Syria.

A report back to the UN Safety Council final week stated the menace to worldwide safety from the Islamic State group is rising, pointing to an “alarming” growth of its associates in Africa and its give attention to a comeback in Syria and Iraq.

A Taliban fighter sits on the again of a automobile with a machine gun in entrance of the primary gate resulting in the Afghan presidential palace, in Kabul, Afghanistan, August 16, 2021. (Rahmat Gul/AP)

The report stated IS and different terrorist teams have taken benefit of “the disruption, grievances and improvement setbacks” brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abu Haniyeh, the analyst in Amman, stated the perceived defeat of U.S. forces in Afghanistan by a radical group is reverberating amongst annoyed people world wide and could have widespread ramifications within the coming years.

“It offers hope for extremist teams the world over,” he stated.