Taliban’s return in Afghanistan poses a balancing act for Iran

For years, Iran has equipped Taliban insurgents with weapons and cash, in accordance with U.S. officers, forming an unlikely however resilient bond between Tehran’s Shiite leaders and the fiercely Sunni fundamentalist rebel group in Afghanistan.

Tehran’s goals are twofold: to make sure that safety and financial ties stay robust—Iran and Afghanistan are vital buying and selling companions—and to stop a flood of refugees throughout the border.

That problem comes at a time when different powers, mainly China, Pakistan and Russia, may additionally be well-placed to increase their affect in Afghanistan now that the U.S. is leaving.

“Iran needs a steady, pleasant Afghanistan that doesn’t pose a menace, and with which it has aligned strategic goals in favor of the resistance in opposition to U.S. and Western affect,” stated Andrew Peek, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Iraq and Iran who additionally served as an adviser on intelligence and particular operations points for Gen. John Allen in Afghanistan.

An early indication of whether or not Iran will be capable of work with the Taliban can be whether or not Afghanistan’s new rulers enable extremist Sunni terrorist teams to take root there, as al Qaeda did within the Nineties, a growth that may pose a menace to Shia Iran and Shias in Afghanistan.

Earlier than the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Iran and the Taliban regime have been bitter foes. They almost went to warfare in 1998, after the Taliban killed 10 Iranian diplomats. Tehran later cooperated with the U.S. in toppling the Taliban, with the 2 sides sharing intelligence about Taliban and al Qaeda places. After the Taliban’s ouster, Iran assisted in forming a brand new Afghan authorities, bringing collectively feuding warlords.

A promising signal from Tehran’s perspective got here Thursday. In an try and painting itself as extra tolerant of the nation’s Shia minority, Taliban commanders within the northern metropolis of Mazar-I Sharif allowed processions to go forward to commemorate Ashura, a very powerful holy day for Shias.

But this week the Taliban additionally destroyed a statue of Abdul Ali Mazari, a pacesetter of the Hazara ethnic minority who died in 1995. “It’s actually a harmful warning for Hazaras,” one Kabul-based journalism pupil stated. “Immediately this statue, subsequent, Hazara individuals.”

Given the historical past between the 2 nations, Iran would have most popular a political settlement in Afghanistan that didn’t go away the Taliban as the only rulers. Iranian officers had known as for a accountable withdrawal of U.S. troops, quite than the swift exit they’ve demanded in Iraq, stated Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an professional on Afghan-Iranian relations with the London-based Royal United Companies Institute suppose tank.

“They concern developments just like the Nineties,” Ms. Tabrizi stated. “There might be a confrontation between the 2.”

Following the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, relations between the Islamic Republic and the Taliban improved, whereas Iran additionally pushed again in opposition to the American presence throughout the Center East. Considerably, Iran strengthened hyperlinks to the Haqqani community, a hard-line and fiercely anti-Western wing of the Taliban, which has grown more and more potent over the previous decade.

Round 2015, improvised explosive gadgets that have been the hallmark of hard-line Shia militias in Iraq a number of years earlier turned extra commonplace in Afghanistan, doubtless on account of Iranian help for the Taliban, Mr. Peek stated.

The Taliban have additionally tried to broaden their help overseas. Within the years instantly following the U.S. invasion, the Taliban relied closely on Pakistan, which allowed Taliban fighters havens the place they may regroup. However because the Taliban captured extra territory in Afghanistan, the group arrange a de facto capital in Sangin in Helmand province, the place Taliban commanders had nearer ties to Iran.

This week’s upheaval offers Iran with an opportunity to increase on these ties, and in latest weeks it has been making ready the bottom for a better relationship, to raised management the potential chaos in Afghanistan.

In July, Iran hosted delegations from the Afghan republic, represented by former Vice President Yunus Qanuni, and the Taliban’s chief negotiator Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai. On Monday, new Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi kept away from criticizing the Taliban for the chaos unfolding in Kabul and as a substitute pitched the group’s victory as a approach ahead out of years of warfare.

“The navy defeat and withdrawal of the U.S. from Afghanistan is a chance to revive life, safety and lasting peace to the nation,” he stated.

Mr. Raisi additionally spoke with Chinese language President Xi Xinping by phone Wednesday. Iranian state media reported him as saying Iran was prepared to collaborate with China to safe stability in Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, Iran has issues about how the scenario in Afghanistan will develop, particularly if its financial system collapses.

Iran already hosts round three million Afghans, amongst them roughly a million refugees and two million undocumented migrants, in accordance with the United Nations. Iran closed a number of border crossings with Afghanistan after they have been captured by the Taliban in latest weeks and has bolstered its armed forces alongside its japanese border.

Iran can be Afghanistan’s largest industrial companion, with about $2 billion in bilateral commerce annually, almost one-third of Afghanistan’s complete commerce quantity. Gas has develop into an more and more vital commodity, and Iran now exports round 1 million tons legally to Afghanistan along with about 1.5 million tons exported illegally, in accordance with David Mansfield, an impartial socioeconomist and Afghanistan professional.

Along with these flashpoints, Iran has lengthy been locked in a water warfare with Afghan authorities to safe water circulate to japanese Iran.

Iran is likely one of the area’s most water-deficient nations. From 1998 to 2001, the earlier Taliban regime closed the sluices at Kajaki dam in Helmand, chopping off the circulate of the Helmand River to Iran.

Extra just lately, Iranian-backed fighters have attacked one other dam mission in Nimruz province, on the Helmand River that may divert water for irrigation and to energy a hydroelectric plant, in accordance with Afghan safety officers within the province. The Kamal Khan dam was inaugurated earlier this yr.

—Ava Sasani contributed to this text.